Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Kocaelispor were slight favourites.
Kocaelispor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Konyaspor. Kocaelispor had 4.9 days of rest, Konyaspor 5.9 and had to travel 473 km.
Away travel473 kmRest days4.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Kocaelispor47%
Draw27%
Konyaspor26%
Kocaelispor52%
Draw25%
Konyaspor23%
Kocaelispor46%
Draw28%
Konyaspor26%
Kocaelispor39%
Draw28%
Konyaspor32%
Kocaelispor47%
Draw28%
Konyaspor26%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 18
Team strength
Kocaelispor
Konyaspor
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
16
AttackIn forecast
13
32
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKonyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporKonyaspor
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.12
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.52
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
60%
Scored inContext
76%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
10.08
ShotsContext
12.80
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
32%
On target shareContext
30%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.52
62%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.29
10.76
Shots allowedContext
12.24
3.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.08
3.67
BlocksContext
3.08
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
67%
Save rateContext
62%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
362
PassesContext
402
290
Accurate passesContext
330
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.96
FoulsContext
11.68
13.44
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.32
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.48
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.50
ShotsContext
12.00
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
29%
On target shareContext
28%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
64%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.75
10.50
Shots allowedContext
12.20
2.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.10
BlocksContext
3.10
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
65%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
382
PassesContext
417
311
Accurate passesContext
343
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.72
16.56
FoulsContext
11.70
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Konyaspor
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel473 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Konyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Mar | 5.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 473 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 394 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
35Gökhan Değirmenci(G)
99R. Rivas
6H. Smolčić
2A. Dijksteel
22A. Oğuz
75T. Bingöl
14Show
8H. Keïta
17D. Churlinov
19S. Dursun
7Daniel Agyei
Konyaspor
Confirmed XI
13B. Güngördü(G)
24A. Boşluk
5U. Yazğılı
39A. Nagalo
23Y. Andzouana
18B. Kutlu
16M. Jevtović
70K. Olaigbe
77M. İbrahimoğlu
9D. Türüç
40J. Muleka
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Konyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Konyaspor-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
1.62points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.69
Konyaspor · Away
0.75points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-7
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kocaelispor | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Rizespor | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Kayserispor | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A | L 0–4 A |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Galatasaray | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 30 of 72 · 1.25 per game | 24 of 72 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Kocaelispor wins0 draws0 Konyaspor wins
Goals per game3.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 18 Oct 2025Konyaspor2–3Kocaelispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.12 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.52 | |
| Match goals | 1.88 | 2.64 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 56% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 28% | 48% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 68% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 24% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Kocaelispor | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.20 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 4.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.79 | 4.52 | |
| Match total | 8.08 | 9.48 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 10/24 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 7/24 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 3/24 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.28 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.36 | 2.48 | |
| Match total | 4.64 | 4.84 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 17/25 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 14/25 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Kocaelispor | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 7.40 | 8.30 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.70 | 4.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 4.45
Red cards0.17league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 45%
Fouls26.0league 26.0
Penalties0.33league 0.26
Home wins28%league 37%
Kocaelispor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L28 Feb 26H · Besiktas0–11
Konyaspor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L2 May 25A · Antalyaspor0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor25 games · scored 22 · conceded 25
1
4
0-15
4
16-30
5
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
8
76-90
Konyaspor25 games · scored 28 · conceded 38
1
2
0-15
7
6
16-30
3
11
31-45
5
8
46-60
3
6
61-75
9
5
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
