Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Kocaelispor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Kocaelispor had 6.9 days of rest, Rizespor 5.9 and had to travel 1,113 km.
Away travel1,113 kmRest days6.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Kocaelispor46%
Draw27%
Rizespor28%
Kocaelispor47%
Draw26%
Rizespor27%
Kocaelispor46%
Draw27%
Rizespor27%
Kocaelispor38%
Draw27%
Rizespor34%
Kocaelispor46%
Draw26%
Rizespor28%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeUmit Ozturk
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 3
Team strength
Kocaelispor
Rizespor
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
16
AttackIn forecast
22
32
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporRizespor
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.76
40%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
8.40
ShotsContext
10.75
2.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
31%
On target shareContext
30%
5.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
55%
Box shareContext
72%
5%
ConversionContext
5%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.20
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.40
BlocksContext
2.75
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
68%
Save rateContext
63%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
306
PassesContext
370
229
Accurate passesContext
299
75%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.56
Team ratingContext
6.82
14.20
FoulsContext
13.50
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.75
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.40
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
40%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.40
ShotsContext
12.80
2.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
31%
On target shareContext
42%
5.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
55%
Box shareContext
68%
5%
ConversionContext
14%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.43
14.20
Shots allowedContext
15.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.40
BlocksContext
3.80
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
68%
Save rateContext
66%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
306
PassesContext
354
229
Accurate passesContext
288
75%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.56
Team ratingContext
7.02
14.20
FoulsContext
11.40
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.40
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,813 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Rizespor
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,113 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 5.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 15 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,113 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,813 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
1A. Jovanović(G)
3Muharrem Cinan
6H. Smolčić
5B. Balogh
2A. Dijksteel
8H. Keïta
14Show
17D. Churlinov
75T. Bingöl
99R. Rivas
9B. Petković
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
27M. Sagnan
3S. Akaydin
54M. Pala
10I. Olawoyin
6G. Papanikolaou
77A. Zeqiri
20Q. Laçi
50L. Augusto
9A. Sowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rizespor+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Rizespor · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 25% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 50% | |
| Games | 5 | 4 |
| Kocaelispor | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 25% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 50% | |
| Games | 5 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 2.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 7.25 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.25 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Kocaelispor | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 9.30 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.80 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 4/5 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Umit Ozturk Türkiye · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.67league 4.50
Red cards0.00league 0.26
Cards 5+33%league 48%
Fouls22.0league 26.3
Penalties0.00league 0.26
Home wins33%league 39%
KocaelisporNo previous matches with this referee.
Rizespor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Apr 25H · Eyüpspor1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor5 games · scored 2 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Rizespor4 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Kocaelispor5 games · scored 2 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
4
61-75
8
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
