Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor – 16 Aug 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 16 · 17:00 Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli

Kocaelispor 9th · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–1Full time

Samsunspor 5th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Kocaelispor were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Kocaelispor had 4.9 days of rest, Samsunspor 7 and had to travel 769 km.

Away travel769 kmRest days4.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Kocaelispor42%

Draw27%

Samsunspor32%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.25

Kocaelispor41%

Draw27%

Samsunspor32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.24

Kocaelispor41%

Draw27%

Samsunspor32%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.26

Kocaelispor34%

Draw27%

Samsunspor39%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.40

Kocaelispor41%

Draw27%

Samsunspor31%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.23

Over 2.5 51% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Kocaeli)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeZorbay Kucuk

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 3

Team strength

Kocaelispor

Samsunspor

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

16 AttackIn forecast 15

32 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kocaelispor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Samsunspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Kocaelispor

Samsunspor

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

— Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

— xGVia Att/Def 1.13

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

— Goals minus xGContext +0.17

— Scored inContext 70%

— Clean sheetsContext 20%

— ShotsContext 11.70

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.78

— On target shareContext 37%

— Shots in the boxContext 7.67

— Box shareContext 62%

— ConversionContext 11%

— OffsidesContext 2.67

— Shots allowedContext 11.67

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

— BlocksContext 3.25

— Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71

— Save rateContext 61%

— PossessionIn forecast 52%

— PassesContext 434

— Accurate passesContext 358

— Pass accuracyContext 83%

— Team ratingContext 6.92

— FoulsContext 10.40

— Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

— Yellow cardsContext 2.20

— Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 0 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kocaelispor

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,092 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Samsunspor

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel769 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Kocaelispor	Samsunspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 11 Aug	7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	769 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,092 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	15.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kocaelispor Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1A. Jovanović(G)

21M. Haïdara 5A. Appindangoyé 2A. Dijksteel 22A. Oğuz

98J. Nonge Boende 14Show 23S. Yalçın

20Ryan Mendes 9B. Petković 17O. Çağlayan

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Samsunspor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Kocuk(G)

17L. Tómasson 4R. van Drongelen 37Ľ. Šatka 18Z. Yavru

10J. Ntcham 5C. Yüksel

11E. Kılınç 21C. Holse 14L. Dimata

9M. Mouandilmadji

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Kocaelispor Absences are shown before kick-off

Samsunspor Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Kocaelispor+0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Samsunspor-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Kocaelispor · Home No home games yet this season.

Samsunspor · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Kocaelispor	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	3.00	2.72
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Kocaelispor	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	3.00	2.72
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Kocaelispor	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	2.00
Corners conceded	3.00	3.00
Match total	8.00	5.00	8.43
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	0.00
Match total	2.00	1.00	3.14
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Kocaelispor	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.00
Corners conceded	3.00	4.89
Match total	8.00	8.89	8.43
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	0.00	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	3.00
Match total	2.00	5.20	3.14
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Zorbay Kucuk Türkiye · 3 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 2.86

Red cards0.67league 0.29

Cards 5+33%league 29%

Fouls34.0league 24.9

Penalties0.33league 0.57

Home wins67%league 57%

Kocaelispor

No previous matches with this referee.

Samsunspor

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.