Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kocaelispor. Kocaelispor had 8 days of rest, Samsunspor 6.9 and had to travel 769 km.
Away travel769 kmRest days8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Kocaelispor40%
Draw26%
Samsunspor34%
Kocaelispor36%
Draw26%
Samsunspor38%
Kocaelispor39%
Draw26%
Samsunspor35%
Kocaelispor33%
Draw26%
Samsunspor41%
Kocaelispor40%
Draw26%
Samsunspor34%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Kocaelispor
Samsunspor
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
16
AttackIn forecast
15
32
DefenceIn forecast
18
59
Form indexContext
42
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSamsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporSamsunspor
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
67%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.33
ShotsContext
11.00
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
41%
On target shareContext
18%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
45%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
21.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.33
3.67
BlocksContext
5.67
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.67
67%
Save rateContext
77%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
444
PassesContext
475
371
Accurate passesContext
395
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.67
FoulsContext
10.67
15.33
Fouls sufferedContext
14.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
0.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.81
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.80
ShotsContext
11.80
2.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
24%
On target shareContext
36%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
64%
Box shareContext
63%
7%
ConversionContext
17%
2.44
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.30
Shots allowedContext
16.70
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.20
BlocksContext
4.80
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
75%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
394
PassesContext
448
323
Accurate passesContext
377
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.80
FoulsContext
13.00
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
LWW
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km946 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 59 · 6 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Samsunspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 6.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 769 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 946 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
83S. Öztaşdelen(G)
21M. Haïdara
6M. Maglica
4B. Zoukrou
2A. Dijksteel
14Show
11Gonçalo Sousa
10B. Kutlu
22U. Yıldız
7Daniel Agyei
97F. Ayé
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
34G. Guarino
22Y. Çift
2J. Mendes
11E. Kılınç
8S. Onur
5C. Yüksel
20Y. Kayan
42Y. Sekongo
30Saikuba Jarju
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Samsunspor
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor+1.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Samsunspor-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Samsunspor · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Kocaelispor wins1 draws1 Samsunspor wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 100%
- 24 Jan 2026Samsunspor0–0Kocaelispor
- 16 Aug 2025Kocaelispor0–1Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.33 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Kocaelispor | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 3.70 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 10% | 80% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 10.00 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 2.67 | 3.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Kocaelispor | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.56 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 6.78 | 10.44 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.50 | 3.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor3 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Samsunspor3 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
4
0-15
2
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
8
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
