Konyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 21). Absences weigh more on Konyaspor. Konyaspor had 4.2 days of rest, Besiktas 4.1 and had to travel 463 km.
Away travel463 kmRest days4.2 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Konyaspor33%
Draw26%
Besiktas41%
Konyaspor34%
Draw27%
Besiktas39%
Konyaspor34%
Draw27%
Besiktas40%
Konyaspor26%
Draw25%
Besiktas48%
Konyaspor33%
Draw27%
Besiktas40%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Konya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 9
Team strength
Konyaspor
Besiktas
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
13
AttackIn forecast
60
31
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBesiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KonyasporBesiktas
1.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
100%
Scored inContext
75%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.25
ShotsContext
13.75
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
39%
On target shareContext
38%
7.75
Shots in the boxContext
10.38
63%
Box shareContext
75%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.63
13.00
Shots allowedContext
9.38
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.88
2.86
BlocksContext
2.14
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.86
72%
Save rateContext
59%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
365
PassesContext
422
296
Accurate passesContext
350
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.13
FoulsContext
13.88
13.38
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.38
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
-0.49
100%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.40
ShotsContext
13.10
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
38%
On target shareContext
36%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
59%
Box shareContext
74%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.70
13.30
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.25
BlocksContext
3.11
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
69%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
369
PassesContext
446
301
Accurate passesContext
368
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.70
FoulsContext
13.20
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Konyaspor
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Besiktas
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel463 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Konyaspor |
Besiktas |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 4.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 463 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Konyaspor
Confirmed XI
1D. Ertaş(G)
12G. Sityá
4A. Demirbağ
20R. Bazoer
23Y. Andzouana
21J. Jo
8Pedrinho
10E. Bardhi
77M. İbrahimoğlu
40J. Muleka
22M. Nayir
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
53E. Topçu
3G. de Abreu
22T. Bulut
10O. Kökçü
4O. Ndidi
52Devrim Sahin
27Rafa
7M. Rashica
9T. Abraham
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Konyaspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Besiktas
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Konyaspor-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Besiktas+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Konyaspor · Home
1.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Besiktas · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Konyaspor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | L 2–3 H | W 3–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Goztepe | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 4–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 7 of 18 · 1.17 per game | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Konyaspor wins0 draws3 Besiktas wins
Goals per game0.25 – 1.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets25% · 75%
- 15 Mar 2025Konyaspor1–0Besiktas
- 20 Oct 2024Besiktas2–0Konyaspor
- 19 Feb 2024Besiktas2–0Konyaspor
- 1 Oct 2023Konyaspor0–2Besiktas
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Konyaspor | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.88 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 63% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Konyaspor | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.88 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 63% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Konyaspor | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 6.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.13 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 10.51 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.88 | |
| Match total | 4.63 | 5.38 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Konyaspor | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.40 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.30 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.44league 4.84
Red cards0.33league 0.27
Cards 5+44%league 56%
Fouls23.9league 26.5
Penalties0.11league 0.29
Home wins56%league 38%
Konyaspor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W10 May 25H · Rizespor2–12
Besiktas1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D19 Apr 25A · Goztepe1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Konyaspor8 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
61-75
5
1
76-90
Besiktas8 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
61-75
5
2
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
