Konyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fenerbahce were slight favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Konyaspor. Konyaspor had 8.1 days of rest, Fenerbahce 7 and had to travel 463 km.
Away travel463 kmRest days8.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Konyaspor28%
Draw24%
Fenerbahce48%
Konyaspor21%
Draw25%
Fenerbahce55%
Konyaspor27%
Draw24%
Fenerbahce49%
Konyaspor22%
Draw22%
Fenerbahce56%
Konyaspor29%
Draw24%
Fenerbahce47%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Konya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
- Cards per match 6.0
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 25
Team strength
Konyaspor
Fenerbahce
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
13
AttackIn forecast
75
31
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KonyasporFenerbahce
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.22
1.41
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.06
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
81%
Scored inContext
88%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
12.50
ShotsContext
16.38
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.91
33%
On target shareContext
36%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
9.53
60%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.08
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.41
Shots allowedContext
10.19
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.34
3.27
BlocksContext
3.65
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.62
64%
Save rateContext
75%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
393
PassesContext
466
320
Accurate passesContext
400
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.98
11.94
FoulsContext
11.69
12.56
Fouls sufferedContext
13.97
2.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.10
ShotsContext
14.20
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
39%
On target shareContext
37%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
63%
Box shareContext
56%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.89
11.40
Shots allowedContext
11.70
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.33
BlocksContext
3.78
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
68%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
363
PassesContext
460
286
Accurate passesContext
388
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.97
13.00
FoulsContext
10.80
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Konyaspor
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,547 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Fenerbahce
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel463 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Konyaspor |
Fenerbahce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 May | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 463 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,547 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Konyaspor
Confirmed XI
13B. Güngördü(G)
24A. Boşluk
4A. Demirbağ
5U. Yazğılı
23Y. Andzouana
16M. Jevtović
77M. İbrahimoğlu
70K. Olaigbe
10E. Bardhi
9D. Türüç
40J. Muleka
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
34F. Günok(G)
22M. Mercan
24J. Oosterwolde
4Ç. Söyüncü
27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi
17N. Kanté
9M. Aktürkoğlu
7Fred
20A. Musaba
94Talisca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Konyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fenerbahce
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Konyaspor+1.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fenerbahce-1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Konyaspor · Home
1.50points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-6-4
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.00
Fenerbahce · Away
2.00points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-5-2
- Scored
- 2.13
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Konyaspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 HW 5–2 A |
| Trabzonspor | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Samsunspor | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Galatasaray | W 2–0 HL 1–3 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | W 3–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Besiktas | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | W 4–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 AW 4–2 H |
| Points | 40 of 93 · 1.29 per game | 67 of 93 · 2.16 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Konyaspor wins1 draws4 Fenerbahce wins
Goals per game0.80 – 3.20
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 15 Dec 2025Fenerbahce4–0Konyaspor
- 31 May 2025Fenerbahce2–1Konyaspor
- 13 Jan 2025Konyaspor2–3Fenerbahce
- 6 May 2024Konyaspor0–0Fenerbahce
- 10 Jan 2024Fenerbahce7–1Konyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Konyaspor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 2.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.41 | 1.06 | |
| Match goals | 2.72 | 3.28 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 63% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 66% | 63% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 13% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Konyaspor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.50 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Konyaspor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 6.76 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 4.52 | |
| Match total | 9.53 | 11.28 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 16/32 | 79% 23/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 16/32 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 12/32 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 4.69 | 5.63 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 66% 21/32 | 78% 25/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 12/32 | 59% 19/32 | |
| Konyaspor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 8.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 12.40 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.00 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.76league 4.43
Red cards0.24league 0.22
Cards 5+72%league 45%
Fouls25.1league 26.0
Penalties0.36league 0.28
Home wins40%league 41%
Konyaspor2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.4.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W21 Feb 26H · Galatasaray2–04
- L25 May 25H · Alanyaspor1–25
Fenerbahce1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W27 Oct 25A · Gazişehir Gaziantep4–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Konyaspor32 games · scored 42 · conceded 45
1
2
0-15
11
7
16-30
5
12
31-45
6
10
46-60
3
8
61-75
16
6
76-90
Fenerbahce32 games · scored 71 · conceded 34
7
7
0-15
9
7
16-30
15
5
31-45
9
6
46-60
12
4
61-75
19
5
76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
8
1
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 21 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
