Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor – 18 Oct 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 18 · 12:30 Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Konya

Konyaspor 8th · 11 pts · 7 played DLLWD

2–3Full time

Kocaelispor 15th · 5 pts · 8 played DLDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Konyaspor were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Kocaelispor. Konyaspor had 13 days of rest, Kocaelispor 13.9 and had to travel 473 km.

Away travel473 kmRest days13 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Konyaspor46%

Draw27%

Kocaelispor28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.15

Konyaspor44%

Draw27%

Kocaelispor29%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.19

Konyaspor44%

Draw27%

Kocaelispor29%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.19

Konyaspor39%

Draw27%

Kocaelispor34%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.29

Konyaspor46%

Draw27%

Kocaelispor28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.15

Over 2.5 51% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Konya)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 7

Team strength

Konyaspor

Kocaelispor

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

13 AttackIn forecast 16

31 DefenceIn forecast 32

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Konyaspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Kocaelispor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Konyaspor

Kocaelispor

1.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63

1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 0.75

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

+0.63 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

100% Scored inContext 63%

14% Clean sheetsContext 13%

12.43 ShotsContext 9.13

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

40% On target shareContext 33%

7.57 Shots in the boxContext 5.38

60% Box shareContext 57%

15% ConversionContext 7%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.88

13.86 Shots allowedContext 12.75

4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.17 BlocksContext 3.88

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

72% Save rateContext 70%

49% PossessionIn forecast 48%

365 PassesContext 334

295 Accurate passesContext 259

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.61

11.71 FoulsContext 14.25

12.43 Fouls sufferedContext 14.88

2.14 Yellow cardsContext 2.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.25

This league season, per match · 7 and 8 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 0.75

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

+0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

100% Scored inContext 63%

10% Clean sheetsContext 13%

12.10 ShotsContext 9.13

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

39% On target shareContext 33%

7.40 Shots in the boxContext 5.38

58% Box shareContext 57%

14% ConversionContext 7%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.88

13.60 Shots allowedContext 12.75

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.38 BlocksContext 3.88

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

70% Save rateContext 70%

48% PossessionIn forecast 48%

362 PassesContext 334

296 Accurate passesContext 259

82% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.61

11.50 FoulsContext 14.25

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 14.88

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.75

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.25

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 8 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Konyaspor

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km926 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Kocaelispor

Rest13.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel473 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Konyaspor	Kocaelispor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Oct	13.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 4 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	473 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	926 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Konyaspor Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1D. Ertaş(G)

12G. Sityá 4A. Demirbağ 5U. Yazğılı 23Y. Andzouana

8Pedrinho 77M. İbrahimoğlu 42M. Bjørlo

40J. Muleka 22M. Nayir 18A. Ndao

Kocaelispor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Jovanović(G)

34O. Syrota 6H. Smolčić 5B. Balogh 22A. Oğuz

10K. Linetty 8H. Keïta

75T. Bingöl 98J. Nonge Boende 7Daniel Agyei

19S. Dursun

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Konyaspor Absences are shown before kick-off

Kocaelispor Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Konyaspor+2.2 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Kocaelispor-1.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Konyaspor · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Kocaelispor · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Konyaspor	Kocaelispor
Gazişehir Gaziantep	W 3–0 H	L 0–2 A
Eyüpspor	W 4–1 A	W 1–0 H
Points	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Konyaspor	Kocaelispor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.86	0.63
Conceded per game	1.29	1.50
Match goals	3.14	2.13	2.70
Over 1.5	100%	63%
Over 2.5	71%	25%	51%
Over 3.5	29%	25%
Both teams scored	86%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	14%	13%
Failed to score	0%	38%
Games	7	8

	Konyaspor	Kocaelispor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.86	0.63
Conceded per game	1.29	1.50
Match goals	3.14	2.13	2.70
Over 1.5	100%	63%
Over 2.5	71%	25%	51%
Over 3.5	29%	25%
Both teams scored	86%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	14%	13%
Failed to score	0%	38%
Games	7	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Konyaspor	Kocaelispor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.57	5.00
Corners conceded	5.71	4.00
Match total	10.28	9.00	9.51
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.29	3.00
Opponent cards	1.86	2.88
Match total	4.15	5.88	4.87
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	88% 7/8
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	88% 7/8

	Konyaspor	Kocaelispor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	5.00
Corners conceded	5.30	4.00
Match total	9.80	9.00	9.51
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.30	3.00
Opponent cards	2.40	2.88
Match total	4.70	5.88	4.87
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	88% 7/8
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	88% 7/8

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.43league 4.63

Red cards0.00league 0.29

Cards 5+29%league 53%

Fouls26.1league 26.9

Penalties0.14league 0.30

Home wins43%league 37%

Konyaspor

No previous matches with this referee.

Kocaelispor

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.