Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Aug 15 · 17:15 Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Antwerp were slight favourites.

Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 15). Kortrijk had 7.9 days of rest, Antwerp 6 and had to travel 95 km.

Away travel95 kmRest days7.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Kortrijk31%
Draw25%
Antwerp44%
Expected goals 1.29 – 1.58
Kortrijk31%
Draw26%
Antwerp43%
Expected goals 1.22 – 1.47
Kortrijk31%
Draw25%
Antwerp44%
Expected goals 1.29 – 1.58
Kortrijk25%
Draw23%
Antwerp52%
Expected goals 1.15 – 1.77
Kortrijk31%
Draw25%
Antwerp44%
Expected goals 1.29 – 1.57
Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kortrijk)

No weather data yet

RefereeNicolas Laforge
  • Cards per match 4.6
  • Penalties per match 0.26
  • Matches 47

Team strength

KortrijkAntwerp
15 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30
12 Current StrengthIn forecast 26
10 AttackIn forecast 24
16 DefenceIn forecast 19
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kortrijk

Attack—
Defense risk—

Antwerp

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

KortrijkAntwerp
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
— xGVia Att/Def 1.71
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36
— Goals minus xGContext -0.41
50% Scored inContext 60%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
9.70 ShotsContext 15.60
3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80
33% On target shareContext 31%
5.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.80
61% Box shareContext 69%
9% ConversionContext 8%
2.00 OffsidesContext 3.70
15.10 Shots allowedContext 13.20
5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
4.30 BlocksContext 4.40
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20
71% Save rateContext 67%
41% PossessionIn forecast 55%
357 PassesContext 428
257 Accurate passesContext 356
72% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.93
10.00 FoulsContext 12.50
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kortrijk
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km85 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 43 · 0 pts vs 0.8 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected
  • L7 AugA · Club Brugge KV0–30.2 xPts
Antwerp
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel95 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 59 · 3 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
  • W9 AugH · SK Beveren2–11.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Kortrijk Antwerp
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 7 Aug6Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 9 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km95 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways85 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 11 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one147.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kortrijk Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
31M. Ilić(G)
5J. Ndjeungoue 22G. Ruyssen 36R. Kohon
3M. Anderson 35B. Lambert 19B. Dejaegere 11S. Campbell
71Ken Masui 68T. Ambrose
10G. Koyalipou
Antwerp Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
27E. Tuypens 20R. Van Helden 4Yuto Tsunashima 24T. Somers
14Xander Dierickx 6Jules Ahoka
77I. Salah 7A. Valencia 25M. Fofana
9M. Frey

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Kortrijk Absences are shown before kick-off
Antwerp Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Kortrijk+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Antwerp+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Kortrijk · Home No home games yet this season.
Antwerp · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Kortrijk wins0 draws2 Antwerp wins
Goals per game0.00 – 3.50 Over 2.550% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%
  • 9 Mar 2024Kortrijk0–1Antwerp
  • 11 Aug 2023Antwerp6–0Kortrijk

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Referee · Nicolas Laforge 47 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.40league 2.91
Red cards0.17league 0.18
Cards 5+47%league 27%
Fouls22.1league 21.6
Penalties0.26league 0.27
Home wins43%league 55%
Kortrijk1 with this referee
Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • D27 Jan 24H · OH Leuven0–03
Antwerp5 with this referee
Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1
  • W25 Apr 26A · KVC Westerlo4–23
  • L22 Mar 26A · OH Leuven0–15
  • W14 Dec 25A · Gent2–01
  • L26 Oct 25H · Club Brugge KV0–12
  • D27 Sep 23H · Gent0–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Kortrijk1 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
46-60
2 61-75
76-90
Antwerp1 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Kortrijk10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 3 61-75
2 4 76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
0-15
2 2 16-30
2 6 31-45
3 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
3 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.