Kortrijk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Charleroi were slight favourites.
Charleroi were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Charleroi. Kortrijk had 14 days of rest, Charleroi 7 and had to travel 95 km.
Away travel95 kmRest days14 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Kortrijk22%
Draw24%
Charleroi54%
Kortrijk29%
Draw25%
Charleroi46%
Kortrijk22%
Draw24%
Charleroi54%
Kortrijk17%
Draw22%
Charleroi61%
Kortrijk23%
Draw24%
Charleroi53%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kortrijk)
No weather data yet
RefereeWesli De Cremer
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.51
- Matches 35
Team strength
Kortrijk
Charleroi
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
10
AttackIn forecast
43
16
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
78
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KortrijkCharleroi
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
3.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.95
2.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.62
-0.90
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
0%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
12.00
ShotsContext
19.67
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.33
21%
On target shareContext
32%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
13.33
61%
Box shareContext
68%
0%
ConversionContext
10%
—
OffsidesContext
3.00
18.00
Shots allowedContext
8.33
7.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
3.50
BlocksContext
2.67
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
60%
Save rateContext
100%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
334
PassesContext
529
239
Accurate passesContext
452
72%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.49
Team ratingContext
7.31
7.50
FoulsContext
7.33
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
50%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
9.90
ShotsContext
14.50
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
31%
On target shareContext
32%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
64%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.29
16.00
Shots allowedContext
10.80
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
4.20
BlocksContext
3.50
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
68%
Save rateContext
89%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
360
PassesContext
430
260
Accurate passesContext
362
72%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.05
9.80
FoulsContext
9.30
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kortrijk
LL
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 28 · 0 pts vs 2.7 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kortrijk |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 15 Aug | 7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 95 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 219 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kortrijk
Confirmed XI
31M. Ilić(G)
5J. Ndjeungoue
22G. Ruyssen
36R. Kohon
8N. Mehssatou
35B. Lambert
19B. Dejaegere
11S. Campbell
71Ken Masui
68T. Ambrose
10G. Koyalipou
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
44M. Sow
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi
6A. Boukamir
17A. Bernier
8J. Romsaas
14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kortrijk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kortrijk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Kortrijk · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Charleroi · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Kortrijk wins0 draws1 Charleroi wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 3 Feb 2024Kortrijk1–0Charleroi
- 23 Sep 2023Charleroi1–0Kortrijk
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kortrijk | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.33 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
| Kortrijk | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 20% | |
| Games | 2 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kortrijk | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.00 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 0.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 1.50 | 1.66 | 2.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Kortrijk | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.11 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 10.60 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.30 | 2.80 | 2.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wesli De Cremer 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 2.23
Red cards0.20league 0.12
Cards 5+40%league 15%
Fouls23.7league 20.9
Penalties0.51league 0.31
Home wins54%league 54%
Kortrijk1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 Sep 23A · OH Leuven0–33
Charleroi4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.3
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- W30 Aug 25H · Dender3–11
- W27 Dec 23H · KV Mechelen3–12
- L11 Nov 23A · KV Mechelen0–12
- W21 Oct 23H · Antwerp3–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kortrijk2 games · scored 0 · conceded 6
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
Charleroi3 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Kortrijk10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 15 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
46-60
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
