KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Anderlecht. KV Mechelen had 6.1 days of rest, Anderlecht 5.1 and had to travel 21 km.
Away travel21 kmRest days6.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 3
KV Mechelen27%
Draw24%
Anderlecht49%
KV Mechelen32%
Draw26%
Anderlecht43%
KV Mechelen27%
Draw24%
Anderlecht49%
KV Mechelen21%
Draw22%
Anderlecht56%
KV Mechelen27%
Draw25%
Anderlecht48%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
KV Mechelen
Anderlecht
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
18
AttackIn forecast
37
23
DefenceIn forecast
52
9
Form indexContext
35
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenAnderlecht
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-1.17
40%
Scored inContext
40%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.40
ShotsContext
16.60
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
27%
On target shareContext
29%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
67%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
4%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.25
15.40
Shots allowedContext
8.80
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.00
BlocksContext
1.75
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.80
57%
Save rateContext
60%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
458
PassesContext
555
363
Accurate passesContext
472
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.51
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.40
FoulsContext
12.20
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
50%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.50
ShotsContext
17.33
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
27%
On target shareContext
29%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
61%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.40
14.10
Shots allowedContext
8.33
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.11
BlocksContext
2.00
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.83
62%
Save rateContext
61%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
434
PassesContext
555
344
Accurate passesContext
472
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.59
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.90
FoulsContext
14.00
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.78
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
LDLDL
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km127 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 9 · 2 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -4.2 vs expected
Anderlecht
WLLWD
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel21 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 35 · 7 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 5.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 21 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 127 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
44M. Eerdhuijzen
2L. Marijnissen
7T. Koudou
26D. Praet
6F. Hammar
23S. Michez
30Marco Decherf
9M. van Brederode
28B. Boersma
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
27L. Pétrot
4G. Biancone
79A. Maamar
11O. Antman
55M. Kana
30Ilias Koutsoupias
10M. Winkler
14D. Sikan
21T. Bentayeb
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 3.50
Anderlecht · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 KV Mechelen wins2 draws3 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game1.33 – 2.00
Over 2.583%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets17% · 0%
- 17 May 2026Anderlecht2–2KV Mechelen
- 18 Apr 2026KV Mechelen1–2Anderlecht
- 15 Mar 2026KV Mechelen1–0Anderlecht
- 1 Nov 2025Anderlecht3–1KV Mechelen
- 1 Feb 2024KV Mechelen2–2Anderlecht
- 7 Oct 2023Anderlecht3–1KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 1.60 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| KV Mechelen | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.40 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 7.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 9.20 | 10.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| KV Mechelen | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 6.70 | 9.00 | 10.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.60 | 2.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen5 games · scored 5 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Anderlecht5 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 10 · conceded 23
2
4
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
