KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
KV Mechelen
6th · 31 pts · 21 played
WWLDL
First leg1–0
1–1Full time
KVC Westerlo
12th · 24 pts · 21 played
WDWLL
Our take
KV Mechelen were slight favourites.
KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 23). KV Mechelen had 7.9 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 8 and had to travel 31 km.
Away travel31 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
KV Mechelen51%
Draw25%
KVC Westerlo24%
KV Mechelen50%
Draw26%
KVC Westerlo24%
KV Mechelen51%
Draw25%
KVC Westerlo24%
KV Mechelen43%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo30%
KV Mechelen51%
Draw25%
KVC Westerlo24%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 47
Team strength
KV MechelenKVC Westerlo
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
18
AttackIn forecast
42
23
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenKVC Westerlo
1.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.52
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
81%
Scored inContext
57%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.10
ShotsContext
15.14
3.95
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.85
37%
On target shareContext
31%
7.05
Shots in the boxContext
10.43
68%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.36
14.57
Shots allowedContext
12.29
4.95
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.19
4.37
BlocksContext
4.06
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.76
88%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
398
PassesContext
390
324
Accurate passesContext
314
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.89
9.95
FoulsContext
11.38
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.76
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.48
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.57
70%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.50
ShotsContext
15.90
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
32%
On target shareContext
29%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
68%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
6%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.29
13.50
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.88
BlocksContext
3.78
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
83%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
425
PassesContext
419
345
Accurate passesContext
344
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.30
FoulsContext
11.00
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km43 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KVC Westerlo
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel31 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
KVC Westerlo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 31 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 43 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
2R. Halhal
33T. St. Jago
17Mathis Servais
6F. Hammar
8M. Konaté
7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode
20L. Lauberbach
10M. Kireev
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
28Dylan Ourega
4A. Lapage
40E. Bayram
22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort
34D. Haspolat
7A. Sayyadmanesh
13I. Sakamoto
38Shunsuke Saito
90Nacho Ferri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
1.40points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-2
- Scored
- 1.10
- Conceded
- 1.10
KVC Westerlo · Away
0.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-5
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 2.30
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | KVC Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Dender | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 AL 1–3 H | W 3–0 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 3–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Charleroi | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Genk | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Anderlecht | L 1–3 A | W 4–0 HL 2–5 A |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 3–2 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Antwerp | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Gent | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 2–1 H | D 5–5 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 28 of 60 · 1.40 per game | 24 of 60 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 KV Mechelen wins0 draws0 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game2.33 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 9 Aug 2025KVC Westerlo0–1KV Mechelen
- 8 Mar 2024KV Mechelen3–1KVC Westerlo
- 26 Aug 2023KVC Westerlo2–3KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.19 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.52 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.86 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 38% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 38% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 43% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| KV Mechelen | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.20 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 30% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.76 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 9.90 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 13/20 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 13/20 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 10/20 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.52 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 4.04 | 3.38 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 14/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 8/21 | 29% 6/21 | |
| KV Mechelen | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 10.40 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.40 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.85
Red cards0.13league 0.18
Cards 5+43%league 41%
Fouls22.8league 23.0
Penalties0.36league 0.28
Home wins49%league 41%
KV Mechelen1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L28 Oct 23H · Cercle Brugge0–21
KVC WesterloNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen21 games · scored 25 · conceded 23
5
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
5
61-75
5
9
76-90
KVC Westerlo21 games · scored 28 · conceded 32
6
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
4
10
31-45
6
3
46-60
6
4
61-75
4
8
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
