KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
KV Mechelen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards KV Mechelen. KV Mechelen had 7.1 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 6 and had to travel 31 km.
Away travel31 kmRest days7.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
KV Mechelen50%
Draw23%
KVC Westerlo27%
KV Mechelen47%
Draw25%
KVC Westerlo28%
KV Mechelen50%
Draw23%
KVC Westerlo27%
KV Mechelen42%
Draw24%
KVC Westerlo34%
KV Mechelen50%
Draw23%
KVC Westerlo27%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
KV Mechelen
KVC Westerlo
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
18
AttackIn forecast
42
23
DefenceIn forecast
32
16
Form indexContext
15
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenKVC Westerlo
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.50
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.19
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
50%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.25
ShotsContext
14.00
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
29%
On target shareContext
29%
7.75
Shots in the boxContext
9.75
62%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
3.33
OffsidesContext
1.33
14.00
Shots allowedContext
16.75
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
2.75
BlocksContext
3.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
67%
Save rateContext
46%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
462
PassesContext
477
368
Accurate passesContext
402
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.50
10.50
FoulsContext
13.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.80
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.05
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.60
ShotsContext
13.20
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
28%
On target shareContext
30%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
60%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.38
13.60
Shots allowedContext
15.10
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
2.89
BlocksContext
3.60
4.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
65%
Save rateContext
53%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
423
PassesContext
429
334
Accurate passesContext
359
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.60
9.30
FoulsContext
11.40
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
LDLD
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km263 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 16 · 2 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected
KVC Westerlo
LLLD
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel31 km64 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 15 · 1 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
KVC Westerlo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 6Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 31 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 263 km | 64 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
44M. Eerdhuijzen
3José Marsà
2L. Marijnissen
17C. Van Meirvenne
6F. Hammar
26D. Praet
7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode
27K. Van Rafelghem
16S. Ayodele
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
28Dylan Ourega
4A. Lapage
5Seiji Kimura
2L. Flø
14C. Sandra
45I. Fofana
7Shunsuke Saito
13I. Sakamoto
20C. Congreve
9N. Bassette
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
KVC Westerlo · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 KV Mechelen wins1 draws0 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 25 Jan 2026KV Mechelen1–1KVC Westerlo
- 9 Aug 2025KVC Westerlo0–1KV Mechelen
- 8 Mar 2024KV Mechelen3–1KVC Westerlo
- 26 Aug 2023KVC Westerlo2–3KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 3.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.75 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| KV Mechelen | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.80 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 6.25 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 10.00 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 1.75 | 2.50 | 2.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| KV Mechelen | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 6.70 | 9.40 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.90 | 2.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen4 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
KVC Westerlo4 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
4
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 23
2
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
6
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 12 · conceded 28
5
2
0-15
6
16-30
7
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
