KVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
KVC Westerlo
11th · 9 pts · 6 played
WLLWW
0–2Full time
Standard Liege
14th · 8 pts · 7 played
WLLLD
Our take
KVC Westerlo were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. KVC Westerlo had 6.9 days of rest, Standard Liege 8.8 and had to travel 68 km.
Away travel68 kmRest days6.9 · 8.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
KVC Westerlo42%
Draw27%
Standard Liege31%
KVC Westerlo43%
Draw27%
Standard Liege31%
KVC Westerlo42%
Draw27%
Standard Liege31%
KVC Westerlo35%
Draw28%
Standard Liege37%
KVC Westerlo43%
Draw27%
Standard Liege31%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Van Damme
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 15
Team strength
KVC WesterloStandard Liege
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
42
AttackIn forecast
29
32
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStandard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KVC WesterloStandard Liege
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
83%
Scored inContext
57%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
15.67
ShotsContext
9.29
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.43
35%
On target shareContext
37%
10.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.57
69%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.67
Shots allowedContext
14.43
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.20
BlocksContext
4.57
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
63%
Save rateContext
74%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
355
PassesContext
377
279
Accurate passesContext
301
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.00
FoulsContext
9.14
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.29
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.30
ShotsContext
10.30
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
30%
On target shareContext
39%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
66%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
1.17
OffsidesContext
2.13
12.30
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.78
BlocksContext
4.20
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
59%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
397
PassesContext
406
318
Accurate passesContext
326
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.95
11.80
FoulsContext
9.00
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KVC Westerlo
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Standard Liege
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel68 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KVC Westerlo |
Standard Liege |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 8.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 68 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
25T. Rommens
5Seiji Kimura
40E. Bayram
22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort
34D. Haspolat
77J. Alcócer
13I. Sakamoto
18G. Yow
90Nacho Ferri
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
7T. Mohr
20I. Karamoko
29D. Dierckx
13M. Fossey
23M. Ilaimaharitra
94C. Nielsen
17R. Saïd
10D. Eckert Ayensa
11A. Abid
9T. Henry
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KVC Westerlo · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Standard Liege · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | KVC Westerlo | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge | L 1–4 A | L 0–3 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 KVC Westerlo wins1 draws0 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 16 Feb 2024KVC Westerlo2–1Standard Liege
- 22 Sep 2023Standard Liege0–0KVC Westerlo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KVC Westerlo | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 2.29 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 43% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 43% | |
| Games | 6 | 7 |
| KVC Westerlo | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 2.29 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 43% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 43% | |
| Games | 6 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KVC Westerlo | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.17 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.14 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 4.57 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| KVC Westerlo | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 10.00 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.90 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Van Damme 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.78
Red cards0.27league 0.24
Cards 5+47%league 42%
Fouls23.5league 23.1
Penalties0.47league 0.36
Home wins27%league 42%
KVC Westerlo2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D10 Feb 24A · Union St. Gilloise2–22
- D29 Jul 23A · AS Eupen2–20
Standard Liege2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D5 Nov 23H · KV Mechelen1–11
- D2 Sep 23H · RWDM1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KVC Westerlo6 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Standard Liege7 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
6
31-45
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
