KVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Zulte Waregem were slight favourites.
Zulte Waregem were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Zulte Waregem. KVC Westerlo had 7.1 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 8.1 and had to travel 107 km.
Away travel107 kmRest days7.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
KVC Westerlo27%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem49%
KVC Westerlo37%
Draw26%
Zulte Waregem37%
KVC Westerlo27%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem49%
KVC Westerlo21%
Draw22%
Zulte Waregem57%
KVC Westerlo26%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem50%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 34
Team strength
KVC Westerlo
Zulte Waregem
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
42
AttackIn forecast
27
32
DefenceIn forecast
31
19
Form indexContext
70
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KVC WesterloZulte Waregem
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
4.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
2.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.74
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.63
67%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
13.67
ShotsContext
13.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
22%
On target shareContext
41%
9.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
72%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
15%
1.00
OffsidesContext
—
18.00
Shots allowedContext
9.67
7.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.33
BlocksContext
3.33
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
44%
Save rateContext
89%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
36%
492
PassesContext
332
413
Accurate passesContext
262
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.40
Team ratingContext
7.27
12.00
FoulsContext
11.00
9.33
Fouls sufferedContext
14.33
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
0.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
2.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.30
ShotsContext
12.70
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
30%
On target shareContext
39%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
66%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
1.25
OffsidesContext
2.29
15.00
Shots allowedContext
10.80
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.50
BlocksContext
3.67
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
55%
Save rateContext
79%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
429
PassesContext
382
357
Accurate passesContext
300
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.64
Team ratingContext
7.12
10.10
FoulsContext
10.20
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
0.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KVC Westerlo
LLL
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km64 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 19 · 0 pts vs 4.1 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KVC Westerlo |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 23 Aug | 8.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 107 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 64 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
28Dylan Ourega
4A. Lapage
5Seiji Kimura
23L. Mbamba-Muanda
12R. Laalaloui
45I. Fofana
7Shunsuke Saito
14C. Sandra
20C. Congreve
9N. Bassette
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
1L. Bostyn(G)
55Y. Cappelle
5Jakob Kiilerich
4L. Lemoine
49Franz Tangala
11M. Aké
6E. Lofolomo
8T. Claes
21Á. Zalán
18A. Ementa
20T. Hedl
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KVC Westerlo · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 5.00
Zulte Waregem · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | KVC Westerlo | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–5 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 KVC Westerlo wins0 draws0 Zulte Waregem wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 31 Jan 2026Zulte Waregem0–1KVC Westerlo
- 2 Aug 2025KVC Westerlo3–1Zulte Waregem
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KVC Westerlo | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 4.00 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.33 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| KVC Westerlo | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.60 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KVC Westerlo | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.33 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 0.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.33 | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| KVC Westerlo | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.90 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 0.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.10 | 2.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.32league 2.59
Red cards0.09league 0.16
Cards 5+24%league 19%
Fouls22.5league 20.8
Penalties0.32league 0.28
Home wins44%league 50%
KVC Westerlo5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.3.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 0
- L10 May 26A · Genk0–32
- L27 Dec 25A · Gent0–21
- L27 Jul 25A · Anderlecht2–52
- D27 Jan 24A · Gent2–27
- W4 Nov 23A · OH Leuven2–07
Zulte Waregem1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L13 Mar 26A · Gent0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KVC Westerlo3 games · scored 3 · conceded 12
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
76-90
Zulte Waregem3 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 12 · conceded 26
4
2
0-15
5
16-30
7
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 22 · conceded 7
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
