Lazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were slight favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genoa. Lazio had 6 days of rest, Genoa 5.2 and had to travel 402 km.
Away travel402 kmRest days6 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lazio50%
Draw27%
Genoa23%
Lazio55%
Draw25%
Genoa21%
Lazio50%
Draw27%
Genoa22%
Lazio42%
Draw29%
Genoa29%
Lazio51%
Draw26%
Genoa23%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 34
Team strength
Lazio
Genoa
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
53
AttackIn forecast
23
63
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LazioGenoa
0.95
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
50%
Scored inContext
68%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
10.73
ShotsContext
10.50
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.91
36%
On target shareContext
37%
6.57
Shots in the boxContext
6.71
58%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.13
12.59
Shots allowedContext
13.27
4.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.95
BlocksContext
5.11
3.32
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
81%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
470
PassesContext
356
402
Accurate passesContext
281
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.64
FoulsContext
13.55
16.09
Fouls sufferedContext
15.14
2.09
Yellow cardsContext
2.05
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
50%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.80
ShotsContext
9.70
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
35%
On target shareContext
41%
6.56
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
57%
Box shareContext
64%
6%
ConversionContext
14%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.11
12.40
Shots allowedContext
16.80
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.50
BlocksContext
6.50
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
76%
Save rateContext
77%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
477
PassesContext
349
408
Accurate passesContext
277
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.80
FoulsContext
11.90
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
16.20
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lazio
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,008 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genoa
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel402 km236 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lazio |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 5.2Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 402 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,008 km | 236 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
3L. Pellegrini
25Oliver Provstgaard
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
24K. Taylor
32D. Cataldi
26T. Bašić
9Pedro
27D. Maldini
18G. Isaksen
Genoa
Confirmed XI
16J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
3Aarón Martín
77M. Ellertsson
32M. Frendrup
17R. Malinovskyi
15B. Norton-Cuffy
9Vítinha
29L. Colombo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lazio
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genoa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lazio-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Genoa+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Lazio · Home
1.45points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-3
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.09
Genoa · Away
1.00points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-4
- Scored
- 1.30
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Lazio | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Como | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Verona | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Napoli | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Parma | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Bologna | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Pisa | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Juventus | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Atalanta | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Torino | D 3–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 26 of 63 · 1.24 per game | 23 of 63 · 1.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
6 Lazio wins0 draws1 Genoa wins
Goals per game2.29 – 0.43
Over 2.557%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets57% · 14%
- 29 Sep 2025Genoa0–3Lazio
- 23 Apr 2025Genoa0–2Lazio
- 27 Oct 2024Lazio3–0Genoa
- 19 Apr 2024Genoa0–1Lazio
- 27 Aug 2023Lazio0–1Genoa
- 10 Apr 2022Genoa1–4Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lazio | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.95 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 1.82 | 2.55 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 55% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 23% | 59% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 18% | 64% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 32% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Lazio | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 2.60 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lazio | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.05 | 3.06 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.53 | 5.89 | |
| Match total | 7.58 | 8.95 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 8/19 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 6/19 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 2/19 | 17% 3/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.86 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.22 | 4.64 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 16/22 | 86% 19/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 14/22 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Lazio | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.11 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 7.11 | 8.70 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.30 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 6.30 | 3.90 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.74league 3.79
Red cards0.12league 0.16
Cards 5+26%league 36%
Fouls23.8league 25.6
Penalties0.24league 0.30
Home wins56%league 38%
Lazio3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 Dec 24A · Parma1–33
- W16 Sep 24H · Verona2–12
- W12 Apr 24H · Salernitana4–10
Genoa2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Jan 25A · AS Roma1–31
- L26 Nov 23A · Frosinone1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lazio22 games · scored 21 · conceded 19
4
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
8
3
76-90
Genoa22 games · scored 25 · conceded 31
4
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
6
46-60
5
6
61-75
8
4
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
61-75
4
2
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
