Lazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were clear favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Pisa. Lazio had 6.4 days of rest, Pisa 6.4 and had to travel 265 km.
Away travel265 kmRest days6.4 · 6.4Matches / 14d1 · 2
Lazio66%
Draw22%
Pisa12%
Lazio74%
Draw17%
Pisa9%
Lazio67%
Draw22%
Pisa12%
Lazio60%
Draw25%
Pisa16%
Lazio68%
Draw20%
Pisa12%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
RefereeM. Caputi
Team strength
Lazio
Pisa
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
53
AttackIn forecast
15
63
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LazioPisa
1.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.68
1.05
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
54%
Scored inContext
43%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
10.62
ShotsContext
9.41
4.03
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.52
37%
On target shareContext
29%
6.56
Shots in the boxContext
7.31
60%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
1.70
OffsidesContext
2.10
12.86
Shots allowedContext
14.03
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.32
BlocksContext
4.00
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
76%
Save rateContext
64%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
481
PassesContext
314
417
Accurate passesContext
241
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.68
10.38
FoulsContext
12.97
14.38
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.03
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.19
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.57
70%
Scored inContext
30%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.50
ShotsContext
8.30
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
43%
On target shareContext
35%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.88
63%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
6%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.60
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.70
BlocksContext
3.78
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
72%
Save rateContext
52%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
488
PassesContext
315
432
Accurate passesContext
245
89%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.56
10.80
FoulsContext
12.40
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lazio
Rest6.4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Pisa
Rest6.4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel265 km323 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lazio |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.4Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May | 6.4Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 265 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 323 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 92.9 | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lazio
Confirmed XI
55A. Furlanetto(G)
3L. Pellegrini
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
21R. Belahyane
26T. Bašić
7O. Dele-Bashiru
9Pedro
14T. Noslin
22M. Cancellieri
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
2R. Bozhinov
5S. Canestrelli
33A. Calabresi
3S. Angori
21İ. Vural
14E. Akinsanmiro
20M. Aebischer
7M. Léris
81F. Stojilković
32S. Moreo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lazio
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lazio-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Pisa+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Lazio · Home
1.50points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-6-5
- Scored
- 1.39
- Conceded
- 1.33
Pisa · Away
0.44points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-8-10
- Scored
- 0.89
- Conceded
- 2.39
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Lazio | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Inter | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A | L 2–6 AL 0–2 H |
| Cremonese | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | L 0–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Udinese | D 3–3 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Napoli | W 2–0 AL 0–2 H | L 0–3 HL 2–3 A |
| Fiorentina | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Parma | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Bologna | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| AC Milan | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Torino | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Cagliari | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Juventus | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Genoa | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Como | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H |
| Verona | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Points | 50 of 108 · 1.39 per game | 17 of 108 · 0.47 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Lazio wins1 draws0 Pisa wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 30 Oct 2025Pisa0–0Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lazio | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.05 | 0.68 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.05 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.11 | 2.54 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 51% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 27% | 41% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 46% | 57% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Lazio | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lazio | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.03 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.94 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 7.97 | 8.42 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 16/33 | 44% 16/36 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 10/33 | 39% 14/36 | |
| Over 10.5 | 12% 4/33 | 28% 10/36 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.27 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.59 | 1.65 | |
| Match total | 4.86 | 3.87 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 27/37 | 62% 23/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 21/37 | 32% 12/37 | |
| Lazio | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 2.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 7.77 | 7.20 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.60 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Lazio36 games · scored 37 · conceded 38
5
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
4
6
31-45
6
7
46-60
4
7
61-75
14
7
76-90
Pisa37 games · scored 25 · conceded 69
5
7
0-15
4
6
16-30
2
15
31-45
6
11
46-60
3
11
61-75
5
19
76-90
Lazio9 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 5 · conceded 25
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
5
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
