LE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were slight favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 19). Lens usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. LE Havre had 7.9 days of rest, Lens 8 and had to travel 221 km.
Away travel221 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
LE Havre27%
Draw27%
Lens46%
LE Havre28%
Draw27%
Lens45%
LE Havre27%
Draw27%
Lens46%
LE Havre21%
Draw25%
Lens53%
LE Havre28%
Draw27%
Lens45%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
No weather data yet
RefereeGuillaume Paradis
Team strength
LE Havre
Lens
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
20
AttackIn forecast
63
22
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LE HavreLens
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
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—
Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
100%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.80
ShotsContext
15.50
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
35%
On target shareContext
34%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
57%
Box shareContext
66%
16%
ConversionContext
8%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.88
12.90
Shots allowedContext
10.40
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.63
BlocksContext
2.50
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
61%
Save rateContext
76%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
368
PassesContext
496
301
Accurate passesContext
423
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.11
11.60
FoulsContext
12.70
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,697 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Lens
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel221 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 16 Aug | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 221 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,697 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
4G. Lloris
93A. Sangante
7L. Nego
15A. Seko
45I. Soumaré
14R. Ndiaye
8Y. Kechta
13F. Doucouré
70M. Samatta
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
14M. Udol
20M. Sarr
24J. Gradit
3D. Machado
33F. Sylla
28A. Thomasson
2R. Aguilar
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
38R. Fofana
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lens
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lens+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
No home games yet this season.
Lens · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 LE Havre wins2 draws1 Lens wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 1 Mar 2025Lens3–4LE Havre
- 12 Jan 2025LE Havre1–2Lens
- 6 Apr 2024Lens1–1LE Havre
- 20 Oct 2023LE Havre0–0Lens
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 1.00 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| LE Havre | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 1.00 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 13.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 21.00 | 9.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 5.00 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| LE Havre | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.56 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 4.20 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
LE Havre1 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
76-90
Lens1 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 17 · conceded 23
2
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
