LE Havre vs Lyon – 15 Mar 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 26 Sun, Mar 15 · 16:15 Stade Océane, Le Havre

LE Havre 15th · 26 pts · 25 played WWLLL

0–0Full time

Lyon 4th · 46 pts · 25 played WWLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lyon were slight favourites.

Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for LE Havre. LE Havre had 7 days of rest, Lyon 2.8 and had to travel 551 km.

Away travel551 kmRest days7 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 3

LE Havre24%

Draw26%

Lyon50%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.60

LE Havre20%

Draw24%

Lyon55%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.78

LE Havre24%

Draw26%

Lyon50%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.59

LE Havre19%

Draw24%

Lyon57%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.79

LE Havre25%

Draw27%

Lyon49%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.57

Over 2.5 49% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Le Havre)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 87

Team strength

LE Havre

Lyon

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 63

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 60

20 AttackIn forecast 55

22 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

LE Havre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lyon

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LE Havre

Lyon

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.28 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.08

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

52% Scored inContext 88%

24% Clean sheetsContext 48%

10.32 ShotsContext 11.52

3.64 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

31% On target shareContext 39%

6.17 Shots in the boxContext 8.09

57% Box shareContext 67%

8% ConversionContext 14%

2.05 OffsidesContext 1.94

12.08 Shots allowedContext 11.00

4.04 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.71

3.78 BlocksContext 3.90

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.74

68% Save rateContext 73%

47% PossessionIn forecast 55%

377 PassesContext 465

306 Accurate passesContext 400

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.90

13.00 FoulsContext 13.20

13.56 Fouls sufferedContext 13.04

1.84 Yellow cardsContext 1.88

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.12

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.65

40% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

8.80 ShotsContext 11.50

3.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

30% On target shareContext 41%

5.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.89

53% Box shareContext 65%

8% ConversionContext 17%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.14

14.10 Shots allowedContext 10.90

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.30 BlocksContext 3.22

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

76% Save rateContext 70%

48% PossessionIn forecast 55%

371 PassesContext 502

297 Accurate passesContext 435

80% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.88

12.70 FoulsContext 11.00

14.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

LE Havre

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km714 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lyon

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel551 km2,876 km in 14d

Schedule load34%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	LE Havre	Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 34
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Mar	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	551 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	714 km	2,876 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	2 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7	4.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

LE Havre Confirmed XI

4-1-3-2

99M. Diaw(G)

27E. K. Vinette 93A. Sangante 29Stephan Zagadou 7L. Nego

15A. Seko

14R. Ndiaye 17S. Boufal 19L. Gourna-Douath

45I. Soumaré 25M. Samatta

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Lyon Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

40R. Descamps(G)

3N. Tagliafico 19M. Niakhaté 6F. Tessmann 33H. Hateboer

5O. Mangala 23T. Morton

16Abner 8C. Tolisso 7A. Karabec

9Endrick

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

LE Havre Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lyon Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

LE Havre+0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Lyon-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

LE Havre · Home 1.54points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 5-5-3
Scored: 1.15
Conceded: 0.92

Lyon · Away 1.38points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 5-3-5
Scored: 1.54
Conceded: 1.46

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	LE Havre	Lyon
Stade Brestois 29	L 0–2 AW 1–0 H	W 2–1 HD 0–0 A
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	L 2–3 H
Nantes	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Toulouse	W 2–1 HD 0–0 A	L 1–2 H
Strasbourg	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	L 1–3 AW 2–1 H
Lens	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H	W 1–0 A
Monaco	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A	W 3–1 A
Rennes	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	L 1–3 A
Angers	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 H
Paris FC	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 HD 3–3 A
Lille	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A
Auxerre	W 1–0 A	D 0–0 A
Marseille	L 2–6 A	L 2–3 AW 1–0 H
Metz	D 0–0 A	W 5–2 AW 3–0 H
Lorient	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
Nice	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 HL 2–3 A
Points	26 of 72 · 1.08 per game	43 of 72 · 1.79 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 LE Havre wins1 draws3 Lyon wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 60%

14 Dec 2025Lyon1–0LE Havre
16 Mar 2025Lyon4–2LE Havre
20 Oct 2024LE Havre0–4Lyon
14 Jan 2024LE Havre3–1Lyon
17 Sep 2023Lyon0–0LE Havre

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	LE Havre	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.60
Conceded per game	1.28	1.08
Match goals	2.08	2.68	2.64
Over 1.5	56%	60%
Over 2.5	36%	52%	49%
Over 3.5	16%	32%
Both teams scored	44%	48%	52%
Clean sheets	24%	48%
Failed to score	48%	12%
Games	25	25

	LE Havre	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.90
Conceded per game	1.10	1.20
Match goals	1.80	3.10	2.64
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	40%	49%
Over 3.5	0%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	60%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	LE Havre	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	4.43	5.26
Corners conceded	4.57	4.87
Match total	9.00	10.13	9.17
Over 8.5	57% 13/23	74% 17/23
Over 9.5	39% 9/23	35% 8/23
Over 10.5	39% 9/23	30% 7/23
Cards
Cards	1.92	2.12
Opponent cards	2.28	2.44
Match total	4.20	4.56	4.00
Over 3.5	68% 17/25	76% 19/25
Over 4.5	32% 8/25	40% 10/25

	LE Havre	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	3.89
Corners conceded	5.20	4.56
Match total	9.60	8.45	9.17
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.90
Opponent cards	2.10	2.50
Match total	4.30	4.40	4.00
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 87 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.72league 3.71

Red cards0.23league 0.27

Cards 5+37%league 36%

Fouls24.6league 23.9

Penalties0.30league 0.38

Home wins41%league 49%

LE Havre4 with this referee

Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against2 · 0

L30 Jan 26A · Lens0–12
D2 Nov 25A · Toulouse0–03
L19 May 24H · Marseille1–21
D28 Jan 24A · Lorient3–34

Lyon9 with this referee

Record3-3-3 Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.9 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds1

D29 Oct 25A · Paris FC3–33
L4 May 25H · Lens1–22
W4 Jan 25H · Montpellier1–01
D27 Oct 24H · Auxerre2–20
W15 Mar 24A · Toulouse3–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.