LE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
LE Havre were slight favourites.
LE Havre were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Metz. LE Havre had 7.9 days of rest, Metz 7 and had to travel 439 km.
Away travel439 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
LE Havre55%
Draw24%
Metz21%
LE Havre55%
Draw24%
Metz21%
LE Havre54%
Draw24%
Metz22%
LE Havre47%
Draw26%
Metz27%
LE Havre55%
Draw24%
Metz21%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 126
Team strength
LE Havre
Metz
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
20
AttackIn forecast
11
22
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMetz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LE HavreMetz
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
57%
Scored inContext
57%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.77
ShotsContext
9.37
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
33%
On target shareContext
32%
6.66
Shots in the boxContext
6.26
59%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.21
OffsidesContext
1.82
12.20
Shots allowedContext
14.67
4.03
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.67
3.61
BlocksContext
3.43
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
70%
Save rateContext
65%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
376
PassesContext
446
306
Accurate passesContext
383
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.74
13.17
FoulsContext
11.10
13.93
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
60%
Scored inContext
40%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.10
ShotsContext
10.60
4.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
32%
On target shareContext
29%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
62%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
6%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.14
13.60
Shots allowedContext
15.20
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.80
BlocksContext
4.22
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.88
77%
Save rateContext
63%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
381
PassesContext
442
315
Accurate passesContext
378
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.30
FoulsContext
12.40
14.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,148 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Metz
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel439 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Metz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 439 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,148 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
4G. Lloris
15A. Seko
7L. Nego
26S. Ebonog
14R. Ndiaye
45I. Soumaré
8Y. Kechta
13F. Doucouré
25M. Samatta
Metz
Confirmed XI
61P. Sy(G)
4Urie-Michel Mboula
15T. Yegbe
38S. Sané
7G. Tsitaishvili
12Alpha Touré
5J. Gbamin
20J. Deminguet
70B. Sarr
11G. Kvilitaia
10G. Hein
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Metz
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Metz-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
1.47points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-7-3
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 0.87
Metz · Away
0.33points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-12
- Scored
- 0.87
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | LE Havre | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Angers | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Nice | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Auxerre | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Paris FC | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | L 1–3 HL 2–3 A |
| Lyon | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | L 2–5 HL 0–3 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Nantes | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Toulouse | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | L 3–4 HL 0–4 A |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Lens | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Monaco | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 2–5 A |
| Rennes | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Lille | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 HL 1–6 A |
| Marseille | L 2–6 A | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 29 of 87 · 1.00 per game | 14 of 87 · 0.48 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 LE Havre wins2 draws1 Metz wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.33
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets67% · 100%
- 28 Sep 2025Metz0–0LE Havre
- 21 Apr 2024LE Havre0–1Metz
- 29 Oct 2023Metz0–0LE Havre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.27 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 43% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| LE Havre | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.60 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.18 | 4.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.64 | 4.93 | |
| Match total | 8.82 | 9.00 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 15/28 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 10/28 | 24% 7/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 10/28 | 17% 5/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 1.77 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 4.13 | 3.20 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 20/30 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 10/30 | 20% 6/30 | |
| LE Havre | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 8.90 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.30 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 126 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.02league 3.66
Red cards0.26league 0.27
Cards 5+45%league 36%
Fouls22.1league 23.7
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins52%league 47%
LE Havre4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L23 Feb 25H · Toulouse1–41
- L7 Dec 24A · Nice1–22
- D6 Apr 24A · Lens1–15
- D20 Oct 23H · Lens0–02
Metz3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L19 Oct 25A · Toulouse0–42
- L12 May 24A · Strasbourg1–22
- W27 Nov 21A · Nice1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
LE Havre30 games · scored 25 · conceded 38
2
5
0-15
4
5
16-30
4
10
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
6
61-75
6
8
76-90
Metz30 games · scored 27 · conceded 66
3
10
0-15
4
8
16-30
5
13
31-45
3
8
46-60
2
7
61-75
10
20
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 6 · conceded 20
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
