LE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for LE Havre. LE Havre had 97.8 days of rest, Monaco 97.8 and had to travel 849 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel849 kmRest days97.8 · 97.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
LE Havre29%
Draw25%
Monaco46%
LE Havre28%
Draw25%
Monaco47%
LE Havre29%
Draw25%
Monaco46%
LE Havre23%
Draw23%
Monaco53%
LE Havre30%
Draw25%
Monaco45%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
23°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 17 km/h
- Humidity 36%
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 102
Team strength
LE Havre
Monaco
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
20
AttackIn forecast
45
22
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LE HavreMonaco
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
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—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.90
ShotsContext
12.60
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
35%
On target shareContext
37%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
68%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
2.89
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.50
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.90
BlocksContext
3.78
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
80%
Save rateContext
62%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
363
PassesContext
471
296
Accurate passesContext
396
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.30
FoulsContext
12.00
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
Rest97.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Monaco
Rest97.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel849 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 97.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 May | 97.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 849 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
77Lionel M'Pasi(G)
23V. Sasso
15A. Seko
32T. Pembélé
18Y. Zouaoui
6J. Mwanga
26S. Ebonog
13F. Doucouré
7M. Richardson
14R. Ndiaye
25M. Samatta
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
15E. Dier
72S. Sané
2Vanderson
6D. Zakaria
8M. Camara
17S. Idumbo
10A. Golovin
28M. Coulibaly
29P. Brunner
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Monaco-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
No home games yet this season.
Monaco · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 LE Havre wins4 draws2 Monaco wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 24 Jan 2026LE Havre0–0Monaco
- 16 Aug 2025Monaco3–1LE Havre
- 26 Apr 2025LE Havre1–1Monaco
- 22 Sep 2024Monaco3–1LE Havre
- 4 Feb 2024Monaco1–1LE Havre
- 11 Nov 2023LE Havre0–0Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 56% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| LE Havre | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 80% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.14 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 2.86 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| LE Havre | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 9.56 | 10.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.50 | 2.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 102 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.29league 2.57
Red cards0.30league 0.29
Cards 5+52%league 0%
Fouls22.5league 24.3
Penalties0.37league 0.57
Home wins44%league 29%
LE Havre7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.6
Pens for · against3 · 2
Reds2
- L22 Feb 26A · Nantes0–23
- D5 Oct 25H · Rennes2–21
- W4 May 25A · Auxerre2–11
- W1 Mar 25A · Lens4–32
- D2 Feb 25A · Angers1–15
Monaco9 with this referee
Record1-5-3
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds4
- W14 Mar 26H · Stade Brestois 292–02
- L27 Oct 24A · Nice1–25
- D25 Aug 23A · Nantes3–32
- D28 Jan 23A · Marseille1–12
- D13 Aug 22H · Rennes1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
LE HavreMonacoLE Havre10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 20 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
6
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
