LE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rennes were slight favourites.
Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 20). LE Havre had 7 days of rest, Rennes 6.9 and had to travel 202 km.
Away travel202 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
LE Havre30%
Draw27%
Rennes43%
LE Havre31%
Draw27%
Rennes42%
LE Havre30%
Draw27%
Rennes43%
LE Havre24%
Draw25%
Rennes51%
LE Havre31%
Draw27%
Rennes43%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 87
Team strength
LE Havre
Rennes
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
20
AttackIn forecast
63
22
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LE HavreRennes
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
67%
Scored inContext
67%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.50
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
33%
On target shareContext
31%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
53%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.25
OffsidesContext
2.60
7.83
Shots allowedContext
15.33
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
2.25
BlocksContext
5.60
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
58%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
410
PassesContext
480
338
Accurate passesContext
417
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.86
16.00
FoulsContext
12.67
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.84
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.80
ShotsContext
11.70
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
34%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
56%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.14
OffsidesContext
2.25
9.80
Shots allowedContext
14.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.50
BlocksContext
4.38
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
60%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
403
PassesContext
458
331
Accurate passesContext
398
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.70
FoulsContext
11.70
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km878 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rennes
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel202 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 202 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 878 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.2 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
4G. Lloris
93A. Sangante
7L. Nego
14R. Ndiaye
15A. Seko
26S. Ebonog
10F. Mambimbi
45I. Soumaré
21Y. Namli
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
3L. Brassier
97J. Jacquet
36A. Seidu
26Q. Merlin
6D. Cissé
21V. Rongier
45M. Camara
95P. Frankowski
9E. Lepaul
7B. Embolo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Rennes+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Rennes · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | LE Havre | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | D 1–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 LE Havre wins1 draws3 Rennes wins
Goals per game0.75 – 2.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 13 Apr 2025LE Havre1–5Rennes
- 25 Oct 2024Rennes1–0LE Havre
- 11 Feb 2024LE Havre0–1Rennes
- 27 Aug 2023Rennes2–2LE Havre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.50 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| LE Havre | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.50 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 7.75 | 9.00 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/4 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.50 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| LE Havre | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.57 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 8.28 | 9.11 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.50 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 87 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.32league 3.78
Red cards0.29league 0.34
Cards 5+53%league 39%
Fouls22.5league 24.7
Penalties0.34league 0.47
Home wins44%league 56%
LE Havre5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds2
- W4 May 25A · Auxerre2–11
- W1 Mar 25A · Lens4–32
- D2 Feb 25A · Angers1–15
- L17 Feb 24A · Lille0–33
- W16 Dec 23H · Nice3–14
Rennes5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- W15 Aug 25H · Marseille1–03
- L17 May 25A · Marseille2–43
- W15 Sep 24H · Montpellier3–01
- W26 Feb 23A · Nantes1–02
- D13 Aug 22A · Monaco1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
LE Havre6 games · scored 6 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Rennes6 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
