LE Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 – 29 Oct 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 10 Wed, Oct 29 · 18:00 Stade Océane, Le Havre

LE Havre 14th · 9 pts · 9 played DDDLW

1–0Full time

Stade Brestois 29 12th · 9 pts · 9 played WWDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Stade Brestois 29 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 21). Absences weigh more on Stade Brestois 29. LE Havre had 3.1 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 4.1 and had to travel 357 km.

Away travel357 kmRest days3.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

LE Havre32%

Draw28%

Stade Brestois 2940%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.37

LE Havre32%

Draw27%

Stade Brestois 2941%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

LE Havre32%

Draw28%

Stade Brestois 2941%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.38

LE Havre26%

Draw27%

Stade Brestois 2947%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.53

LE Havre33%

Draw27%

Stade Brestois 2940%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.43

Over 2.5 47% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Le Havre)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBenoît Millot

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 79

Team strength

LE Havre

Stade Brestois 29

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

20 AttackIn forecast 47

22 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

LE Havre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LE Havre

Stade Brestois 29

1.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.56

1.78 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.64

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

78% Scored inContext 67%

22% Clean sheetsContext 22%

10.67 ShotsContext 13.00

3.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

33% On target shareContext 31%

6.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

57% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 12%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.67

9.11 Shots allowedContext 12.67

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.38

2.86 BlocksContext 3.88

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38

56% Save rateContext 63%

45% PossessionIn forecast 43%

379 PassesContext 358

311 Accurate passesContext 280

82% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.82

14.11 FoulsContext 12.11

13.56 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.78 Yellow cardsContext 1.44

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

80% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.60 ShotsContext 12.70

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

35% On target shareContext 29%

5.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

55% Box shareContext 68%

13% ConversionContext 11%

1.63 OffsidesContext 1.67

8.80 Shots allowedContext 12.90

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.44

2.86 BlocksContext 3.78

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

55% Save rateContext 57%

45% PossessionIn forecast 45%

386 PassesContext 375

317 Accurate passesContext 298

82% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.78

13.50 FoulsContext 12.10

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

LE Havre

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,230 km in 14d

Schedule load13%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Stade Brestois 29

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel357 km219 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	LE Havre	Stade Brestois 29
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 13	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Oct	4.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	357 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,230 km	219 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	4.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

LE Havre Confirmed XI

3-1-4-2

99M. Diaw(G)

4G. Lloris 93A. Sangante 29Stephan Zagadou

15A. Seko

23T. Delaine 94A. Touré 26S. Ebonog 13F. Doucouré

45I. Soumaré 11Godson Kyeremeh

Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1R. Majecki(G)

27D. Guindo 44S. Coulibaly 5B. Chardonnet 77K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 24L. Tousart 13J. Chotard

7É. Dina Ebimbe 19L. Ajorque 10R. Del Castillo

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

LE Havre Absences are shown before kick-off

Stade Brestois 29 Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

LE Havre+0.8 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Stade Brestois 29-0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

LE Havre · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.50

Stade Brestois 29 · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	LE Havre	Stade Brestois 29
Lorient	D 1–1 H	D 3–3 A
Nice	W 3–1 H	W 4–1 H
Lens	L 1–2 H	L 1–3 A
Points	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 LE Havre wins0 draws4 Stade Brestois 29 wins

Goals per game0.25 – 1.50 Over 2.525% Both scored25% Clean sheets0% · 75%

26 Jan 2025LE Havre0–1Stade Brestois 29
6 Oct 2024Stade Brestois 292–0LE Havre
3 Mar 2024Stade Brestois 291–0LE Havre
20 Aug 2023LE Havre1–2Stade Brestois 29

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	LE Havre	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	1.22	1.56
Conceded per game	1.78	1.89
Match goals	3.00	3.44	2.57
Over 1.5	67%	89%
Over 2.5	56%	67%	47%
Over 3.5	44%	44%
Both teams scored	67%	56%	53%
Clean sheets	22%	22%
Failed to score	22%	33%
Games	9	9

	LE Havre	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	1.22	1.56
Conceded per game	1.78	1.89
Match goals	3.00	3.44	2.57
Over 1.5	67%	89%
Over 2.5	56%	67%	47%
Over 3.5	44%	44%
Both teams scored	67%	56%	53%
Clean sheets	22%	22%
Failed to score	22%	33%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	LE Havre	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	3.71	4.33
Corners conceded	4.29	5.56
Match total	8.00	9.89	9.51
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	14% 1/7	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	14% 1/7	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.89	1.56
Opponent cards	2.33	1.56
Match total	4.22	3.12	4.12
Over 3.5	78% 7/9	33% 3/9
Over 4.5	22% 2/9	22% 2/9

	LE Havre	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	3.63	4.10
Corners conceded	4.25	5.50
Match total	7.88	9.60	9.51
Over 8.5	25% 2/8	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	13% 1/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.80
Opponent cards	2.40	1.40
Match total	4.10	3.20	4.12
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benoît Millot France · 79 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.59league 3.80

Red cards0.28league 0.30

Cards 5+37%league 37%

Fouls25.5league 24.8

Penalties0.24league 0.53

Home wins42%league 53%

LE Havre3 with this referee

Record0-0-3 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L6 Oct 24A · Stade Brestois 290–21
L11 Feb 24H · Rennes0–12
L10 Dec 23A · Strasbourg1–21

Stade Brestois 2912 with this referee

Record3-2-7 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.3 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds2

L24 Aug 25A · Toulouse0–21
L20 Apr 25H · Lens1–31
L2 Mar 25A · Lyon1–21
L5 Jan 25A · Angers0–21
W6 Oct 24H · LE Havre2–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.