LE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Stade Brestois 29 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Stade Brestois 29. LE Havre had 7 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 7 and had to travel 357 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel357 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
LE Havre37%
Draw25%
Stade Brestois 2938%
LE Havre39%
Draw26%
Stade Brestois 2935%
LE Havre37%
Draw25%
Stade Brestois 2938%
LE Havre30%
Draw25%
Stade Brestois 2946%
LE Havre37%
Draw25%
Stade Brestois 2938%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
19°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 5 km/h
- Humidity 60%
Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 68
Team strength
LE Havre
Stade Brestois 29
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
20
AttackIn forecast
47
22
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LE HavreStade Brestois 29
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.63
xGVia Att/Def
2.73
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.73
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.50
ShotsContext
25.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
30%
On target shareContext
28%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
19.00
63%
Box shareContext
74%
4%
ConversionContext
8%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.50
15.00
Shots allowedContext
7.00
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.50
BlocksContext
1.00
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
83%
Save rateContext
60%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
379
PassesContext
417
308
Accurate passesContext
335
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.92
14.50
FoulsContext
15.50
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.10
ShotsContext
12.70
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
38%
On target shareContext
29%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
65%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.70
OffsidesContext
2.67
13.30
Shots allowedContext
13.70
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.50
BlocksContext
4.10
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
79%
Save rateContext
55%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
364
PassesContext
394
297
Accurate passesContext
322
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.80
FoulsContext
11.90
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
LD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,102 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 1 pts vs 2.6 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Stade Brestois 29 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 357 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,102 km | 700 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
77Lionel M'Pasi(G)
5A. Touba
6J. Mwanga
15A. Seko
32T. Pembélé
7M. Richardson
26S. Ebonog
12E. Jelert
25M. Samatta
14R. Ndiaye
9J. Maja
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
1E. Selvik(G)
2B. Locko
4G. Lloris
71Raphael Marc Le Guen
70K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
9P. Mboup
23K. Doumbia
17M. Baldé
19L. Ajorque
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Absences are shown before kick-off
Stade Brestois 29
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Stade Brestois 29+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Stade Brestois 29 · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 LE Havre wins0 draws5 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game0.33 – 1.33
Over 2.517%
Both scored17%
Clean sheets17% · 67%
- 8 Mar 2026Stade Brestois 292–0LE Havre
- 29 Oct 2025LE Havre1–0Stade Brestois 29
- 26 Jan 2025LE Havre0–1Stade Brestois 29
- 6 Oct 2024Stade Brestois 292–0LE Havre
- 3 Mar 2024Stade Brestois 291–0LE Havre
- 20 Aug 2023LE Havre1–2Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 4.00 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| LE Havre | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 70% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 8.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.00 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| LE Havre | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.01 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 100% 8/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.50 | 3.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.46league 3.05
Red cards0.28league 0.14
Cards 5+31%league 18%
Fouls26.1league 22.7
Penalties0.34league 0.41
Home wins37%league 32%
LE Havre8 with this referee
Record2-2-4
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.5
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds2
- D18 Apr 26A · Angers1–14
- L28 Feb 26H · Paris Saint Germain0–13
- D24 Jan 26H · Monaco0–00
- L14 Dec 25A · Lyon0–14
- W1 Sep 24H · Auxerre3–11
Stade Brestois 298 with this referee
Record2-1-5
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 3
Reds1
- L3 May 26A · Paris FC0–41
- L4 Apr 26H · Rennes3–42
- D19 Oct 25A · Lorient3–32
- W3 Dec 23H · Clermont Foot3–01
- L11 Mar 23H · Paris Saint Germain1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
LE Havre2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Stade Brestois 292 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
3
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
6
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
