Ligue 1 Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 22 · 19:45 Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
Le Mans
2–2Full time
Stade Brestois 29
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Le Mans were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Le Mans. Le Mans had ? days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 97 and had to travel 350 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel350 kmRest days? · 97Matches / 14d0 · 0
Le Mans45%
Draw25%
Stade Brestois 2930%
Expected goals 1.53 – 1.20
Le Mans41%
Draw26%
Stade Brestois 2933%
Expected goals 1.44 – 1.25
Le Mans44%
Draw26%
Stade Brestois 2931%
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.19
Le Mans37%
Draw26%
Stade Brestois 2937%
Expected goals 1.36 – 1.35
Le Mans45%
Draw25%
Stade Brestois 2930%
Expected goals 1.55 – 1.23
Over 2.5 51% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Mans)
22°CPartly cloudy
  • Precipitation 0.0 mm
  • Wind 12 km/h
  • Humidity 35%
RefereeAurelien Petit

Team strength

Le MansStade Brestois 29
27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 31
26 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
27 AttackIn forecast 47
21 DefenceIn forecast 36
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Le Mans

Attack—
Defense risk—

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Le MansStade Brestois 29
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
— Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10
— xGVia Att/Def 0.95
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60
— Goals minus xGContext +0.15
— Scored inContext 60%
— Clean sheetsContext 10%
— ShotsContext 9.60
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.60
— On target shareContext 27%
— Shots in the boxContext 6.40
— Box shareContext 67%
— ConversionContext 12%
— OffsidesContext 2.25
— Shots allowedContext 14.60
— On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33
— BlocksContext 4.40
— Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
— Save rateContext 54%
— PossessionIn forecast 46%
— PassesContext 383
— Accurate passesContext 309
— Pass accuracyContext 81%
— Team ratingContext 6.71
— FoulsContext 11.10
— Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
— Yellow cardsContext 1.70
— Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 0 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Le Mans
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Stade Brestois 29
Rest97 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel350 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Le Mans Stade Brestois 29
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match—97Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km350 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one7.97

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Le Mans Confirmed XI
3-5-2
98N. Kocik(G)
26R. Bamba 21T. Eyoum 15N. Boissé
76Y. Larouci 9A. Rabillard 8A. Lauray 11A. Bourabaa 18L. Buadés
14L. Mafouta 25D. Guèye
+1 more reported missing outside this XI
Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1E. Selvik(G)
2B. Locko 71Raphael Marc Le Guen 29L. Tousart 70K. Lala
7J. Nonge Boende 13J. Chotard
9P. Mboup 23K. Doumbia 10R. Del Castillo
19L. Ajorque
+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Le Mans Absences are shown before kick-off
Stade Brestois 29 Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Le Mans+1.2 pp
  • Draw-0.5 pp
  • Stade Brestois 29-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Le Mans · Home No home games yet this season.
Stade Brestois 29 · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Le MansStade Brestois 29Forecast
Scored per game ——
Conceded per game ——
Match goals —— 2.73
Over 1.5 ——
Over 2.5 —— 51%
Over 3.5 ——
Both teams scored —— 55%
Clean sheets ——
Failed to score ——
Games00
Le MansStade Brestois 29Forecast
Scored per game —1.10
Conceded per game —2.10
Match goals —3.20 2.73
Over 1.5 —90%
Over 2.5 —50% 51%
Over 3.5 —30%
Both teams scored —50% 55%
Clean sheets —10%
Failed to score —40%
Games010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Le MansStade Brestois 29League
Corners
Corners won——
Corners conceded——
Match total——9.00
Over 8.5——
Over 9.5——
Over 10.5——
Cards
Cards——
Opponent cards——
Match total——3.50
Over 3.5——
Over 4.5——
Le MansStade Brestois 29League
Corners
Corners won—3.88
Corners conceded—5.50
Match total—9.389.00
Over 8.5—88% 7/8
Over 9.5—50% 4/8
Over 10.5—25% 2/8
Cards
Cards—1.70
Opponent cards—1.80
Match total—3.503.50
Over 3.5—50% 5/10
Over 4.5—40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Le Mans
No complete event data.
Stade Brestois 29
No complete event data.
Le Mans
No complete event data.
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
3 3 0-15
1 5 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 5 61-75
1 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

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