Lech Poznan
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Wed, Jul 29 · 18:00
Enea Stadion, Poznań
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel603 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Lech Poznan—%
Draw—%
Aarhus—%
Weather (Poznań)
No weather data yet
Referee · AlbaniaJuxhin Xhaja
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 22
Team strength
Lech Poznan
Aarhus
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
35
AttackIn forecast
36
23
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAarhus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Lech PoznanAarhus
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
18.60
ShotsContext
14.10
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
33%
On target shareContext
41%
11.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
62%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.38
OffsidesContext
1.50
9.50
Shots allowedContext
12.80
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.10
BlocksContext
3.50
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
68%
Save rateContext
75%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
480
PassesContext
418
412
Accurate passesContext
342
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.60
FoulsContext
10.70
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lech Poznan
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,206 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Aarhus
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel603 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lech Poznan |
Aarhus |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 21 Jul | 8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 21 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 603 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,206 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lech Poznan
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
15M. Gurgul
59T. Yegbe
27W. Mońka
20R. Gumny
43A. Kozubal
22R. Murawski
77L. Palma
21Pablo Rodríguez
10J. Wålemark
9M. Ishak
Aarhus
Confirmed XI
21Mads Hedenstad(G)
19E. Kahl
5F. Tingager
40J. Jensen-Abbew
39Frederik Emmery
16J. Jønsson
4M. Knudsen
23M. Anderson
10Kristian Arnstad
31T. Bech
28James Bogere
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lech Poznan
Absences are shown before kick-off
Aarhus
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Lech Poznan · Home
No home games yet this season.
Aarhus · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Lech Poznan wins0 draws0 Aarhus wins
Goals per game4.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 21 Jul 2026Aarhus1–4Lech Poznan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lech Poznan | Aarhus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Lech Poznan | Aarhus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lech Poznan | Aarhus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 6.00 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Lech Poznan | Aarhus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.20 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juxhin Xhaja Albania · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.91league 4.22
Red cards0.32league 0.28
Cards 5+64%league 40%
Fouls22.9league 26.3
Penalties0.32league 0.32
Home wins45%league 50%
Lech PoznanNo previous matches with this referee.
AarhusNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lech Poznan1 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Aarhus1 games · scored 1 · conceded 4
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Lech Poznan10 games · scored 24 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
9
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Aarhus10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.