Lech Poznan
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs
Play-offs Thu, Aug 20 · 18:00
Enea Stadion, Poznań
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel918 kmRest days6 · 23Matches / 14d2 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Lech Poznan—%
Draw—%
FC Thun—%
Weather (Poznań)
No weather data yet
RefereeSebastian Gishamer
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 49
Team strength
Lech Poznan
FC Thun
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
35
AttackIn forecast
26
23
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Thun
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Lech PoznanFC Thun
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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—
xGVia Att/Def
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—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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—
Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
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—
ShotsContext
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—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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—
On target shareContext
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—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
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—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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—
Save rateContext
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—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
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—
Accurate passesContext
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—
Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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—
FoulsContext
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—
Fouls sufferedContext
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—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
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2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
2.01
xGVia Att/Def
—
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
—
90%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
18.44
ShotsContext
—
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
38%
On target shareContext
25%
12.50
Shots in the boxContext
—
66%
Box shareContext
—
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
9.22
Shots allowedContext
—
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
2.40
BlocksContext
5.67
1.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
61%
Save rateContext
58%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
464
PassesContext
—
390
Accurate passesContext
—
84%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.95
Team ratingContext
—
10.40
FoulsContext
14.00
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lech Poznan
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,536 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
FC Thun
Rest23 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel918 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lech Poznan |
FC Thun |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 14 Aug | 23UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 28 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 918 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,536 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lech Poznan
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
15M. Gurgul
72M. Skrzypczak
27W. Mońka
2Joel Pereira
22R. Murawski
43A. Kozubal
77L. Palma
21Pablo Rodríguez
10J. Wålemark
17A. Sayyadmanesh
FC Thun
Confirmed XI
1N. Steffen(G)
27M. Heule
23M. Bürki
19J. Bamert
47F. Fehr
78V. Matoshi
13N. Zoukit
16J. Roth
70N. Reichmuth
96B. Labeau
33M. Gutbub
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lech Poznan
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Thun
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
Lech Poznan · Home
No home games yet this season.
FC Thun · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lech Poznan | FC Thun | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Lech Poznan | FC Thun | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lech Poznan | FC Thun | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Lech Poznan | FC Thun | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 13.33 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 6.25 | 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 75% 3/4 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sebastian Gishamer 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 4.00
Red cards0.16league 0.33
Cards 5+31%league 67%
Fouls23.0league 27.7
Penalties0.24league 0.67
Home wins57%league 33%
Lech PoznanNo previous matches with this referee.
FC ThunNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lech PoznanFC ThunLech Poznan9 games · scored 23 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
5
16-30
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
FC Thun4 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.