Lens vs Auxerre – 22 Aug 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 22 · 16:15 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Lens

5–2Full time

Auxerre

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lens were clear favourites.

Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lens. Lens had 96.8 days of rest, Auxerre 96.8 and had to travel 298 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel298 kmRest days96.8 · 96.8Matches / 14d0 · 0

Lens66%

Draw20%

Auxerre15%

Expected goals 2.15 – 0.92

Lens63%

Draw21%

Auxerre16%

Expected goals 1.99 – 0.90

Lens66%

Draw20%

Auxerre15%

Expected goals 2.12 – 0.89

Lens58%

Draw22%

Auxerre20%

Expected goals 1.92 – 1.03

Lens65%

Draw20%

Auxerre15%

Expected goals 2.15 – 0.94

Over 2.5 59% Both score 53% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lens)

19°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 13 km/h
Humidity 65%

Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 61

Team strength

Lens

Auxerre

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

63 AttackIn forecast 39

53 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lens

Attack—

Defense risk—

Auxerre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lens

Auxerre

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

2.01 xGVia Att/Def 0.87

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.63

80% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

20.60 ShotsContext 10.50

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.78

32% On target shareContext 41%

13.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.75

68% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.43 OffsidesContext 1.75

9.90 Shots allowedContext 11.50

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.50 BlocksContext 2.90

2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

67% Save rateContext 73%

56% PossessionIn forecast 43%

489 PassesContext 341

420 Accurate passesContext 269

86% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.95

10.60 FoulsContext 14.00

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lens

Rest96.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Auxerre

Rest96.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel298 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lens	Auxerre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	96.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 May	96.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	298 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lens Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40R. Risser(G)

31Souleymane Sagnan 25P. Ganiou 3M. Nawrocki

14M. Udol 8Y. Titraoui 27M. Cuisance 23S. Abdulhamid

29F. Ivanović 10F. Thauvin

19A. Sima

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Auxerre Confirmed XI

4-3-3

23M. Diop(G)

92C. Akpa 15C. Makosso 20S. Diomandé 27L. Sy

5K. Danois 46A. Piedfort 8N. Ahamada

77A. Zossou 10D. Namaso 21R. Faivre

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lens Absences are shown before kick-off

Auxerre Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lens-0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Auxerre+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Lens · Home No home games yet this season.

Auxerre · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Lens wins1 draws1 Auxerre wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.33 Over 2.567% Both scored50% Clean sheets33% · 17%

17 Jan 2026Lens1–0Auxerre
4 Oct 2025Auxerre1–2Lens
27 Apr 2025Lens0–4Auxerre
14 Dec 2024Auxerre2–2Lens
3 Jun 2023Auxerre1–3Lens
14 Jan 2023Lens1–0Auxerre

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lens	Auxerre	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.06
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	59%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	53%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Lens	Auxerre	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	1.50
Conceded per game	1.40	0.90
Match goals	3.50	2.40	3.06
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	59%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lens	Auxerre	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	7.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Lens	Auxerre	League
Corners
Corners won	7.67	4.20
Corners conceded	4.78	4.90
Match total	12.45	9.10	7.00
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.70
Opponent cards	1.80	2.60
Match total	3.70	4.30	4.00
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 61 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.13league 3.00

Red cards0.36league 1.00

Cards 5+48%league 0%

Fouls26.6league 18.0

Penalties0.34league 1.00

Home wins43%league 100%

Lens7 with this referee

Record5-0-2 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.6 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W8 May 26H · Nantes1–02
W8 Mar 26H · Metz3–00
W2 Jan 26A · Toulouse3–03
L27 Apr 25H · Auxerre0–45
L30 Mar 25A · Lille0–13

Auxerre8 with this referee

Record2-2-4 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.4 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

L23 Jan 26H · Paris Saint Germain0–10
W27 Apr 25A · Lens4–04
L2 Mar 25H · Strasbourg0–11
L5 Oct 24A · Saint Etienne1–31
D27 May 23A · Toulouse1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.