Lens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were clear favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lens. Lens had 7 days of rest, Lorient 6.9 and had to travel 541 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel541 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lens69%
Draw17%
Lorient13%
Lens62%
Draw21%
Lorient16%
Lens70%
Draw17%
Lorient13%
Lens62%
Draw20%
Lorient18%
Lens69%
Draw17%
Lorient14%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lens)
22°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 41%
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 98
Team strength
Lens
Lorient
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
63
AttackIn forecast
28
53
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LensLorient
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
3.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.65
Goals minus xGContext
-0.69
100%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.50
ShotsContext
12.50
8.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
55%
On target shareContext
32%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
77%
Box shareContext
70%
21%
ConversionContext
4%
2.00
OffsidesContext
—
13.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
3.00
BlocksContext
5.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
64%
Save rateContext
100%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
443
PassesContext
548
384
Accurate passesContext
473
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.98
8.50
FoulsContext
8.50
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
19.30
ShotsContext
10.80
6.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
35%
On target shareContext
36%
12.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.89
68%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.89
11.40
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.60
BlocksContext
3.25
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
69%
Save rateContext
75%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
471
PassesContext
445
401
Accurate passesContext
384
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.10
FoulsContext
8.90
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lens
WL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km820 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 3 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lens |
Lorient |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 6.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 541 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 820 km | 1,878 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
14M. Udol
25P. Ganiou
32Kyllian Antonio
22M. Skóraś
8Y. Titraoui
21A. Haidara
2R. Aguilar
9T. Hazard
10F. Thauvin
19A. Sima
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
32N. Adjei
3M. Talbi
20D. Sylla
43Arsène Kouassi
8Noah Cadiou
72N. Mbamba
77P. Katseris
17J. Makengo
33Gabin Bernardeau
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lens
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lorient
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lens-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Lorient+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Lens · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Lorient · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Lens wins2 draws2 Lorient wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.13
Over 2.563%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 25%
- 14 Mar 2026Lorient2–1Lens
- 2 Nov 2025Lens3–0Lorient
- 3 May 2024Lens2–0Lorient
- 4 Nov 2023Lorient0–0Lens
- 21 May 2023Lorient1–3Lens
- 31 Aug 2022Lens5–2Lorient
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lens | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 1.50 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Lens | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 2.50 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lens | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.50 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 0.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 0.50 | 3.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Lens | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.11 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 12.44 | 9.60 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.00 | 3.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 98 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.11league 3.00
Red cards0.22league 0.14
Cards 5+22%league 19%
Fouls20.3league 22.6
Penalties0.37league 0.43
Home wins50%league 33%
Lens6 with this referee
Record1-1-4
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- W20 Sep 25H · Lille3–01
- L23 Nov 24H · Marseille1–33
- L28 Apr 24A · Marseille1–22
- L12 Feb 23A · Lyon1–21
- D4 Sep 22A · Reims1–13
Lorient4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W18 Apr 26H · Marseille2–00
- L10 Dec 23H · Marseille2–45
- W19 Feb 23H · Ajaccio3–00
- L12 Dec 21A · Metz1–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lens2 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Lorient2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 23 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
