Lens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were slight favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 47). Absences weigh more on Monaco. Lens had 6.8 days of rest, Monaco 7.8 and had to travel 821 km.
Away travel821 kmRest days6.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lens54%
Draw25%
Monaco21%
Lens53%
Draw25%
Monaco22%
Lens52%
Draw26%
Monaco22%
Lens47%
Draw27%
Monaco27%
Lens54%
Draw25%
Monaco21%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lens)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceWilly Delajod
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 104
Team strength
Lens
Monaco
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
63
AttackIn forecast
45
53
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LensMonaco
1.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.59
0.77
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
82%
Scored inContext
73%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
13.55
ShotsContext
12.00
4.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.95
36%
On target shareContext
33%
9.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
71%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.94
OffsidesContext
3.06
11.32
Shots allowedContext
12.64
3.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.48
3.76
BlocksContext
3.59
2.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
77%
Save rateContext
63%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
443
PassesContext
462
375
Accurate passesContext
387
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.45
FoulsContext
13.09
12.82
Fouls sufferedContext
11.23
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.32
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.18
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
100%
Scored inContext
60%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.40
ShotsContext
12.10
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
33%
On target shareContext
39%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
68%
Box shareContext
62%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
3.14
OffsidesContext
3.17
8.50
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.63
2.33
BlocksContext
4.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
83%
Save rateContext
60%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
472
PassesContext
406
404
Accurate passesContext
337
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.73
14.10
FoulsContext
13.40
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lens
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km358 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Monaco
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel821 km26 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lens |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 821 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 358 km | 26 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
25P. Ganiou
4N. Čelik
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
5A. Bulatović
23S. Abdulhamid
9A. Saint-Maximin
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Monaco
Confirmed XI
16P. Köhn(G)
25W. Faes
6D. Zakaria
5J. Kehrer
4J. Teze
12Caio Henrique
15M. Camara
28M. Coulibaly
27K. Diatta
24S. Adingra
9F. Balogun
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lens
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lens+2.6 pp
- Draw-1.1 pp
- Monaco-1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Lens · Home
2.73points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-0-1
- Scored
- 1.91
- Conceded
- 0.45
Monaco · Away
0.90points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lens | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Rennes | W 3–1 HD 0–0 A | W 4–0 HL 1–4 A |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Marseille | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Toulouse | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Nice | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Nantes | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 HW 5–3 A |
| Angers | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Strasbourg | W 1–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Lorient | W 3–0 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Metz | L 0–2 A | W 5–2 H |
| Lille | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lyon | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 49 of 63 · 2.33 per game | 31 of 63 · 1.48 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Lens wins2 draws2 Monaco wins
Goals per game2.44 – 1.22
Over 2.578%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets33% · 11%
- 8 Nov 2025Monaco1–4Lens
- 17 May 2025Lens4–0Monaco
- 1 Sep 2024Monaco1–1Lens
- 25 Feb 2024Lens2–3Monaco
- 2 Sep 2023Monaco3–0Lens
- 22 Apr 2023Lens3–0Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lens | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.91 | 1.59 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.77 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.68 | 3.14 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 59% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 55% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 59% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 27% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Lens | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.40 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lens | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.95 | 3.95 | |
| Match total | 9.62 | 8.90 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 11/21 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 10/21 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 8/21 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.05 | 2.59 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.32 | 1.77 | |
| Match total | 4.37 | 4.36 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 14/22 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 10/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Lens | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.70 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 9.77 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Willy Delajod France · 104 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.52league 3.64
Red cards0.26league 0.31
Cards 5+38%league 36%
Fouls24.6league 24.1
Penalties0.40league 0.40
Home wins43%league 50%
Lens12 with this referee
Record5-3-4
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against4 · 0
Reds3
- W14 Dec 25H · Nice2–00
- L2 Nov 24A · Paris Saint Germain0–15
- D1 Sep 24A · Monaco1–14
- L29 Mar 24A · Lille1–23
- W10 Feb 24H · Strasbourg3–12
Monaco11 with this referee
Record3-4-4
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.7
Pens for · against3 · 5
Reds5
- L16 Jan 26H · Lorient1–31
- D5 Oct 25H · Nice2–21
- L24 Aug 25A · Lille0–12
- W15 Mar 25A · Angers2–02
- D1 Sep 24H · Lens1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lens22 games · scored 42 · conceded 17
4
4
0-15
5
3
16-30
9
4
31-45
8
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
12
3
76-90
Monaco22 games · scored 35 · conceded 34
3
1
0-15
4
5
16-30
7
7
31-45
6
4
46-60
5
6
61-75
10
11
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 21 · conceded 6
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
1
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
