Lens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were slight favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 57). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lens. Lens had 5 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 3 and had to travel 179 km.
Away travel179 kmRest days5 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lens23%
Draw24%
Paris Saint Germain53%
Lens19%
Draw24%
Paris Saint Germain57%
Lens23%
Draw24%
Paris Saint Germain53%
Lens18%
Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain60%
Lens24%
Draw25%
Paris Saint Germain51%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lens)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 126
Team strength
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
90
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
63
AttackIn forecast
91
53
DefenceIn forecast
83
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LensParis Saint Germain
1.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.22
1.03
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.84
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.76
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
84%
Scored inContext
94%
34%
Clean sheetsContext
53%
15.84
ShotsContext
17.59
5.28
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.59
33%
On target shareContext
38%
10.94
Shots in the boxContext
11.09
69%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.81
10.63
Shots allowedContext
7.66
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.07
3.48
BlocksContext
2.71
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.32
73%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
459
PassesContext
712
392
Accurate passesContext
651
85%
Pass accuracyContext
92%
7.01
Team ratingContext
7.06
12.56
FoulsContext
9.16
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.16
1.84
Yellow cardsContext
1.03
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.03
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
90%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
20.90
ShotsContext
17.20
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
30%
On target shareContext
37%
13.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
65%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.10
Shots allowedContext
8.30
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
2.90
BlocksContext
3.50
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
75%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
495
PassesContext
618
429
Accurate passesContext
551
87%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.08
10.60
FoulsContext
8.10
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lens
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,640 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Paris Saint Germain
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel179 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lens |
Paris Saint Germain |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 May | 3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 179 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,640 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
6S. Baidoo
25P. Ganiou
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
2R. Aguilar
22W. Saïd
19A. Sima
11O. Édouard
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
39M. Safonov(G)
21L. Hernández
4Beraldo
6I. Zabarnyi
24S. Mayulu
27Dro Fernández
87João Neves
14D. Doué
7K. Kvaratskhelia
10M. Dembélé
29B. Barcola
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lens
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lens+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Paris Saint Germain-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Lens · Home
2.63points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 14-0-2
- Scored
- 2.19
- Conceded
- 0.69
Paris Saint Germain · Away
2.13points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 10-2-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lens | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Nice | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 4–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Toulouse | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A | W 3–1 HW 6–3 A |
| Lille | L 0–3 AW 3–0 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Angers | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Lorient | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Metz | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Strasbourg | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Monaco | L 2–3 HW 4–1 A | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Rennes | W 3–1 HD 0–0 A | L 1–3 AW 5–0 H |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Marseille | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | W 5–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Points | 67 of 93 · 2.16 per game | 70 of 93 · 2.26 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Lens wins2 draws6 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game0.89 – 1.78
Over 2.544%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 14 Sep 2025Paris Saint Germain2–0Lens
- 18 Jan 2025Lens1–2Paris Saint Germain
- 2 Nov 2024Paris Saint Germain1–0Lens
- 14 Jan 2024Lens0–2Paris Saint Germain
- 26 Aug 2023Paris Saint Germain3–1Lens
- 15 Apr 2023Paris Saint Germain3–1Lens
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lens | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.94 | 2.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.03 | 0.84 | |
| Match goals | 2.97 | 3.06 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 63% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 41% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 34% | 53% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 6% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Lens | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.00 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lens | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 5.97 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.17 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 19/30 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 16/30 | 33% 10/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 11/30 | 23% 7/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 1.53 | |
| Match total | 4.19 | 2.62 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 19/32 | 22% 7/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 14/32 | 9% 3/32 | |
| Lens | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.78 | 6.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.78 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.56 | 10.20 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 2.70 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 126 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.16league 3.67
Red cards0.21league 0.26
Cards 5+48%league 36%
Fouls24.6league 23.6
Penalties0.43league 0.37
Home wins54%league 47%
Lens12 with this referee
Record7-2-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.5
Pens for · against3 · 3
- L24 Jan 26A · Marseille1–33
- W6 Dec 25A · Nantes2–10
- L26 Oct 24H · Lille0–24
- W20 Apr 24H · Clermont Foot1–01
- L16 Mar 24H · Nice1–34
Paris Saint Germain19 with this referee
Record13-3-3
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.7
Pens for · against5 · 2
Reds2
- L13 Feb 26A · Rennes1–30
- W4 Jan 26H · Paris FC2–11
- W9 Nov 25A · Lyon3–22
- D5 Oct 25A · Lille1–11
- W17 Aug 25A · Nantes1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lens32 games · scored 62 · conceded 33
6
7
0-15
6
6
16-30
11
6
31-45
15
3
46-60
9
7
61-75
15
4
76-90
Paris Saint Germain32 games · scored 71 · conceded 27
11
3
0-15
6
6
16-30
15
4
31-45
10
5
46-60
12
3
61-75
17
6
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
7
2
46-60
5
5
61-75
3
1
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 23 · conceded 10
5
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
