Levante vs Barcelona – 23 Aug 2025

La Liga Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 23 · 20:30 Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

Levante 17th · 0 pts · 1 played L

2–3Full time

Barcelona 2nd · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Barcelona were clear favourites.

Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 45). Levante had 7 days of rest, Barcelona 7.1 and had to travel 302 km.

Away travel302 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Levante13%

Draw20%

Barcelona67%

Expected goals 0.83 – 2.15

Levante14%

Draw21%

Barcelona65%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.08

Levante13%

Draw20%

Barcelona66%

Expected goals 0.84 – 2.11

Levante9%

Draw17%

Barcelona74%

Expected goals 0.74 – 2.41

Levante13%

Draw20%

Barcelona66%

Expected goals 0.85 – 2.12

Over 2.5 57% Both score 50% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez

Cards per match 5.7
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 108

Team strength

Levante

Barcelona

45 L90 StrengthIn forecast 91

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 93

55 AttackIn forecast 97

41 DefenceIn forecast 92

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Levante

Attack—

Defense risk—

Barcelona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Levante

Barcelona

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

— xGVia Att/Def 2.31

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

— Goals minus xGContext +0.39

90% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.80 ShotsContext 21.30

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.70

36% On target shareContext 36%

9.70 Shots in the boxContext 12.50

66% Box shareContext 58%

14% ConversionContext 13%

2.57 OffsidesContext 1.57

15.00 Shots allowedContext 7.90

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67

3.00 BlocksContext 1.50

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43

64% Save rateContext 63%

46% PossessionIn forecast 73%

376 PassesContext 680

293 Accurate passesContext 611

78% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.75 Team ratingContext 7.24

12.30 FoulsContext 12.00

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Levante

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km843 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Barcelona

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel302 km413 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Levante	Barcelona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7La Liga 2025-2026, 16 Aug	7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	843 km	413 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Levante Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1Pablo Cuñat(G)

23Manu Sánchez 14Jorge Cabello 5Unai Elguezabal 4Adrián de la Fuente 22J. Toljan

11José Luis Morales 20Oriol Rey 10Pablo Martínez 7Roger Brugué

9Iván Romero

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Barcelona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13Joan García(G)

3Alejandro Balde 5Pau Cubarsí 4R. Araujo 24Eric García

8Pedri 17Marc Casadó

14M. Rashford 11Raphinha 10Lamine Yamal

7Ferran Torres

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Levante Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Barcelona Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Levante-0.5 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Barcelona+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Levante · Home No home games yet this season.

Barcelona · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Levante wins1 draws3 Barcelona wins

Goals per game1.25 – 2.50 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

10 Apr 2022Levante2–3Barcelona
26 Sep 2021Barcelona3–0Levante
11 May 2021Levante3–3Barcelona
13 Dec 2020Barcelona1–0Levante

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Levante	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	3.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	2.97
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Levante	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	3.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	2.97
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Levante	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	1.00	6.00
Corners conceded	10.00	3.00
Match total	11.00	9.00	8.83
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	0.00	6.00
Match total	1.00	7.00	3.92
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Levante	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	7.40
Corners conceded	6.20	2.70
Match total	10.60	10.10	8.83
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.60
Opponent cards	3.00	2.40
Match total	5.60	4.00	3.92
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 108 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.38league 3.38

Red cards0.28league 0.38

Cards 5+65%league 38%

Fouls25.6league 23.1

Penalties0.28league 0.31

Home wins36%league 46%

Levante1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L3 Jan 22A · Villarreal0–52

Barcelona14 with this referee

Record7-6-1 Cards · opp.3.6 · 3.6 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds3

W11 May 25H · Real Madrid4–34
W9 Feb 25A · Sevilla4–13
L4 May 24A · Girona2–43
D3 Mar 24A · Athletic Club0–03
W27 Aug 23A · Villarreal4–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.