Levante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Levante were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Elche usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Levante had 6.3 days of rest, Elche 4 and had to travel 138 km.
Away travel138 kmRest days6.3 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Levante43%
Draw27%
Elche30%
Levante44%
Draw27%
Elche29%
Levante42%
Draw28%
Elche30%
Levante36%
Draw28%
Elche36%
Levante45%
Draw26%
Elche29%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 35
Team strength
Levante
Elche
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
55
AttackIn forecast
39
41
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LevanteElche
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.35
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
68%
Scored inContext
85%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
9.47
ShotsContext
10.70
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
33%
On target shareContext
35%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
67%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.29
17.26
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.55
4.74
BlocksContext
3.50
4.05
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
72%
Save rateContext
71%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
343
PassesContext
515
268
Accurate passesContext
448
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.93
12.58
FoulsContext
12.55
11.68
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.21
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
60%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.50
ShotsContext
10.60
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
34%
On target shareContext
32%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
67%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.57
18.30
Shots allowedContext
15.50
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
5.10
BlocksContext
3.60
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
76%
Save rateContext
71%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
348
PassesContext
497
272
Accurate passesContext
428
78%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.10
FoulsContext
12.60
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Elche
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel138 km275 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.3La Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 138 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 604 km | 275 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
3A. Matturro
4Adrián de la Fuente
22J. Toljan
10Pablo Martínez
14U. Raghouber
18Iker Losada
24Carlos Álvarez
9Iván Romero
21E. Eyong
Elche
Confirmed XI
13Iñaki Peña(G)
11Germán Valera
21L. Pétrot
22D. Affengruber
3Adrià Pedrosa
7Yago Santiago
16Martim Neto
14Aleix Febas
8Marc Aguado
19G. Diangana
20Á. Rodríguez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Elche-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
0.38points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.25
Elche · Away
0.44points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-5
- Scored
- 0.89
- Conceded
- 1.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 17 this season
| Opponent | Levante | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | D 2–2 H |
| Espanyol | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Osasuna | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Valencia | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 H | W 4–0 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Getafe | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Girona | W 4–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 2–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Alaves | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 14 of 54 · 0.78 per game | 21 of 54 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Levante wins2 draws2 Elche wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.520%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 29 Aug 2025Elche2–0Levante
- 25 Feb 2022Levante3–0Elche
- 18 Sep 2021Elche1–1Levante
- 24 Apr 2021Elche1–0Levante
- 21 Nov 2020Levante1–1Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.35 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.79 | 2.65 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 65% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 15% | |
| Games | 19 | 20 |
| Levante | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.56 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.06 | 7.90 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 8/16 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 6/16 | 25% 5/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 5/16 | 20% 4/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.26 | 2.15 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.16 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.42 | 4.40 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 13/19 | 75% 15/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 9/19 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Levante | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.63 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 8.00 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.00 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.51league 4.19
Red cards0.29league 0.29
Cards 5+54%league 47%
Fouls25.5league 24.5
Penalties0.17league 0.36
Home wins37%league 47%
Levante1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 Oct 25A · Oviedo2–02
Elche1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L13 Dec 25A · Mallorca1–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante19 games · scored 21 · conceded 32
3
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
3
7
46-60
4
5
61-75
4
7
76-90
Elche20 games · scored 27 · conceded 26
4
7
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
31-45
8
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
5
12
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
2
5
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
