Levante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Levante were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Levante. Levante had 5 days of rest, Mallorca 3.9 and had to travel 260 km.
Away travel260 kmRest days5 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Levante48%
Draw26%
Mallorca26%
Levante43%
Draw27%
Mallorca30%
Levante47%
Draw26%
Mallorca27%
Levante40%
Draw27%
Mallorca33%
Levante49%
Draw24%
Mallorca26%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 43
Team strength
Levante
Mallorca
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
55
AttackIn forecast
50
41
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LevanteMallorca
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.53
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
67%
Scored inContext
78%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
11.83
ShotsContext
10.14
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.09
31%
On target shareContext
39%
7.37
Shots in the boxContext
6.85
62%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.09
15.11
Shots allowedContext
13.92
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.97
BlocksContext
4.31
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.27
69%
Save rateContext
69%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
354
PassesContext
384
281
Accurate passesContext
310
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.39
FoulsContext
11.61
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.17
2.19
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.60
ShotsContext
12.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
32%
On target shareContext
41%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
58%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.30
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.00
BlocksContext
3.67
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
66%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
359
PassesContext
414
289
Accurate passesContext
348
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.70
FoulsContext
13.90
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,531 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Mallorca
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel260 km1,100 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Mallorca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5La Liga 2025-2026, 12 May | 3.9La Liga 2025-2026, 13 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 260 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,531 km | 1,100 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
2M. Moreno
4Adrián de la Fuente
22J. Toljan
9Iván Romero
16K. Arriaga
10Pablo Martínez
18Iker Losada
8Jon Ander Olasagasti
19Carlos Espí
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
27David López
24M. Valjent
23Pablo Maffeo
8Manu Morlanes
10Darder
12Samú Costa
20Pablo Torre
15Zito Luvumbo
7V. Muriqi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Mallorca
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Mallorca-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
1.28points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-7
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.56
Mallorca · Away
0.50points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-13
- Scored
- 0.89
- Conceded
- 1.89
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Levante | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | W 3–2 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Osasuna | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–5 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Espanyol | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 HW 3–0 A | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Alaves | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Valencia | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Elche | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 38 of 105 · 1.09 per game | 38 of 105 · 1.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Levante wins1 draws1 Mallorca wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.67
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 26 Oct 2025Mallorca1–1Levante
- 8 Jan 2022Levante2–0Mallorca
- 2 Oct 2021Mallorca1–0Levante
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.64 | 1.53 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.75 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 64% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 22% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Levante | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.39 | 3.62 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.48 | 6.38 | |
| Match total | 9.87 | 10.00 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 18/33 | 79% 27/34 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 13/33 | 53% 18/34 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 11/33 | 41% 14/34 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.42 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.73 | 4.58 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 25/36 | 58% 21/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 20/36 | 47% 17/36 | |
| Levante | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 9.22 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 5.00 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.53league 4.29
Red cards0.16league 0.27
Cards 5+28%league 47%
Fouls24.5league 24.5
Penalties0.35league 0.36
Home wins51%league 48%
Levante1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Feb 26A · Barcelona0–31
Mallorca7 with this referee
Record1-0-6
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.6
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L25 Apr 26A · Alaves1–21
- L21 Mar 26A · Elche1–23
- L4 Jan 26H · Girona1–22
- L14 May 25A · Real Madrid1–23
- L4 May 24H · Atletico Madrid0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante36 games · scored 44 · conceded 59
4
9
0-15
5
4
16-30
8
12
31-45
8
9
46-60
6
8
61-75
13
17
76-90
Mallorca36 games · scored 44 · conceded 55
4
7
0-15
5
9
16-30
9
14
31-45
3
3
46-60
12
8
61-75
11
14
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
