Levante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Osasuna. Levante had 6.3 days of rest, Osasuna 6 and had to travel 386 km.
Away travel386 kmRest days6.3 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Levante33%
Draw29%
Osasuna38%
Levante37%
Draw27%
Osasuna36%
Levante34%
Draw29%
Osasuna37%
Levante27%
Draw28%
Osasuna45%
Levante33%
Draw28%
Osasuna39%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 43
Team strength
Levante
Osasuna
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
55
AttackIn forecast
50
41
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOsasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LevanteOsasuna
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.18
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.24
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
65%
Scored inContext
68%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
11.09
ShotsContext
11.18
3.48
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.16
31%
On target shareContext
34%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.09
62%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.96
OffsidesContext
2.24
15.53
Shots allowedContext
12.06
5.15
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.52
4.03
BlocksContext
3.27
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.34
69%
Save rateContext
72%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
347
PassesContext
382
274
Accurate passesContext
308
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.50
FoulsContext
13.09
12.65
Fouls sufferedContext
11.15
2.21
Yellow cardsContext
2.26
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.40
ShotsContext
12.40
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
29%
On target shareContext
36%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
60%
Box shareContext
71%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.25
OffsidesContext
2.67
14.50
Shots allowedContext
10.90
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.50
BlocksContext
3.00
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
66%
Save rateContext
64%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
329
PassesContext
419
261
Accurate passesContext
348
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.00
FoulsContext
13.30
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Osasuna
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel386 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Osasuna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.3La Liga 2025-2026, 2 May | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 386 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 704 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
2M. Moreno
4Adrián de la Fuente
22J. Toljan
17Víctor García
10Pablo Martínez
20Oriol Rey
26Kareem Tunde
8Jon Ander Olasagasti
19Carlos Espí
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
23Abel Bretones
22F. Boyomo
24Catena
19V. Rosier
8Iker Muñoz
7Moncayola
18Raúl Moro
10Aimar Oroz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Osasuna
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Osasuna+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
1.18points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-7
- Scored
- 1.24
- Conceded
- 1.53
Osasuna · Away
0.59points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-11
- Scored
- 0.65
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Levante | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | L 1–5 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Espanyol | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H |
| Oviedo | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | W 3–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Alaves | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Valencia | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Athletic Club | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Elche | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 33 of 99 · 1.00 per game | 39 of 99 · 1.18 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Levante wins1 draws3 Osasuna wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.40
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 60%
- 8 Dec 2025Osasuna2–0Levante
- 19 Mar 2022Osasuna3–1Levante
- 5 Dec 2021Levante0–0Osasuna
- 14 Feb 2021Levante0–1Osasuna
- 27 Sep 2020Osasuna1–3Levante
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 1.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 1.24 | |
| Match goals | 2.74 | 2.41 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 47% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 53% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 32% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Levante | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.06 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.74 | 4.77 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.10 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 17/31 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 12/31 | 23% 7/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 10/31 | 7% 2/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.32 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.53 | 2.41 | |
| Match total | 4.85 | 4.85 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 74% 25/34 | 79% 27/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 20/34 | 56% 19/34 | |
| Levante | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 8.56 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 5.20 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.35league 4.28
Red cards0.28league 0.27
Cards 5+49%league 47%
Fouls24.9league 24.5
Penalties0.21league 0.36
Home wins40%league 49%
Levante2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Jan 26H · Elche3–22
- W4 Oct 25A · Oviedo2–02
Osasuna6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W6 Feb 26A · Celta Vigo2–12
- D3 Jan 26H · Athletic Club1–13
- L15 Apr 24H · Valencia0–10
- D25 Feb 24A · Las Palmas1–11
- L4 Nov 23H · Girona2–45
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante34 games · scored 38 · conceded 55
4
6
0-15
5
4
16-30
5
12
31-45
7
8
46-60
5
8
61-75
12
17
76-90
Osasuna33 games · scored 40 · conceded 42
5
1
0-15
2
7
16-30
12
5
31-45
8
46-60
2
13
61-75
19
8
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
61-75
9
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
