Levante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 47). Real Madrid usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Levante had 3.3 days of rest, Real Madrid 3.2 and had to travel 302 km.
Away travel302 kmRest days3.3 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Levante15%
Draw23%
Real Madrid62%
Levante15%
Draw22%
Real Madrid63%
Levante15%
Draw23%
Real Madrid62%
Levante11%
Draw20%
Real Madrid69%
Levante16%
Draw22%
Real Madrid63%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 25
Team strength
Levante
Real Madrid
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
90
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
55
AttackIn forecast
89
41
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LevanteReal Madrid
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.88
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
9.00
ShotsContext
18.40
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
36%
On target shareContext
35%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
65%
Box shareContext
61%
20%
ConversionContext
11%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.00
18.40
Shots allowedContext
9.00
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
6.00
BlocksContext
5.67
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
76%
Save rateContext
69%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
309
PassesContext
603
243
Accurate passesContext
544
79%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.25
14.60
FoulsContext
9.20
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
2.27
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.00
ShotsContext
20.00
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.90
32%
On target shareContext
40%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
11.80
63%
Box shareContext
61%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.11
17.10
Shots allowedContext
10.00
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
4.20
BlocksContext
4.14
4.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
71%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
362
PassesContext
565
289
Accurate passesContext
508
80%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.25
14.10
FoulsContext
8.90
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km776 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Real Madrid
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel302 km705 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.3La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 3.2La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 302 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 776 km | 705 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.7 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
6Diego Pampín
4Adrián de la Fuente
5Unai Elguezabal
22J. Toljan
8Jon Ander Olasagasti
20Oriol Rey
12Unai Vencedor
24Carlos Álvarez
9Iván Romero
21E. Eyong
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
24D. Huijsen
17Raúl Asencio
20Fran García
19Dani Ceballos
8F. Valverde
30Franco Mastantuono
7Vinícius
15A. Güler
10K. Mbappé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Real Madrid-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Real Madrid · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Levante wins1 draws2 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game1.25 – 3.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 12 May 2022Real Madrid6–0Levante
- 22 Aug 2021Levante3–3Real Madrid
- 30 Jan 2021Real Madrid1–2Levante
- 4 Oct 2020Levante0–2Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.40 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Levante | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.40 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.75 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.50 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 2.60 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Levante | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 6.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.11 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 11.13 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 3.20 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.72league 3.85
Red cards0.28league 0.28
Cards 5+68%league 40%
Fouls27.4league 24.4
Penalties0.28league 0.32
Home wins32%league 47%
LevanteNo previous matches with this referee.
Real Madrid4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D25 May 24H · Real Betis0–02
- W25 Feb 24H · Sevilla1–01
- W21 Dec 23A · Alaves1–02
- W25 Aug 23A · Celta Vigo1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante5 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
3
0-15
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Real Madrid5 games · scored 10 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 19 · conceded 20
3
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 21 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
