Levski Sofia
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round
Play-off round Tue, Aug 18 · 20:00
Vivacom Arena – Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel525 kmRest days7.2 · ?Matches / 14d1 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Levski Sofia—%
Draw—%
AEK Athens FC—%
Weather (Sofia)
No weather data yet
RefereeGlenn Nyberg
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 44
Team strength
Levski Sofia
AEK Athens FC
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L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
24
AttackIn forecast
50
26
DefenceIn forecast
57
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAEK Athens FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Levski SofiaAEK Athens FC
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
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Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
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Save rateContext
—
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
—
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Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
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1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
90%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.50
ShotsContext
15.20
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
29%
On target shareContext
38%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
50%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
—
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.25
Shots allowedContext
8.40
6.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
3.33
BlocksContext
1.75
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
68%
Save rateContext
66%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
469
PassesContext
422
400
Accurate passesContext
360
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.98
12.67
FoulsContext
14.70
9.67
Fouls sufferedContext
15.30
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levski Sofia
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km8,566 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
AEK Athens FC
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel525 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levski Sofia |
AEK Athens FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 11 Aug | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 525 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 8,566 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levski Sofia
Confirmed XI
92S. Vutsov(G)
20Álex Centelles
31N. Serafimov
50K. Dimitrov
21Aldair
3Maicon
19E. El Moubarik
17Everton Bala
35Serginho
11A. Oko-Flex
7Reinaldo
AEK Athens FC
Confirmed XI
1T. Strakosha(G)
3S. Pilios
44Filipe Relvas
2H. Moukoudi
12L. Rota
11A. Koita
6K. Kairinen
18R. Marin
14L. Majer
9L. Jović
90Zine
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levski Sofia
Absences are shown before kick-off
AEK Athens FC
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
Levski Sofia · Home
No home games yet this season.
AEK Athens FC · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Levski Sofia | AEK Athens FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Levski Sofia | AEK Athens FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | — | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | — | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | — | |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | — | |
| Clean sheets | 67% | — | |
| Failed to score | 0% | — | |
| Games | 6 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levski Sofia | AEK Athens FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Levski Sofia | AEK Athens FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.10 | |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 5.20 | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Glenn Nyberg 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.18
Red cards0.11
Cards 5+27%
Fouls22.1
Penalties0.25
Home wins45%
Levski SofiaNo previous matches with this referee.
AEK Athens FC1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L9 Nov 23H · Marseille0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levski SofiaAEK Athens FCLevski Sofia10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
3
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
AEK Athens FC10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
5
3
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.