Levski Sofia
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Aug 4 · 18:30
Vivacom Arena – Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel4,283 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Levski Sofia—%
Draw—%
Kairat Almaty—%
Weather (Sofia)
No weather data yet
Referee · LithuaniaDonatas Rumsas
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 27
Team strength
Levski Sofia
Kairat Almaty
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
24
AttackIn forecast
12
26
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKairat Almaty
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Levski SofiaKairat Almaty
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
33%
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
33%
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
6.01
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
—
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.58
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
80%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.00
ShotsContext
8.83
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
1.83
30%
On target shareContext
21%
—
Shots in the boxContext
4.40
—
Box shareContext
47%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
—
OffsidesContext
—
9.67
Shots allowedContext
18.00
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.83
—
BlocksContext
3.50
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.33
54%
Save rateContext
68%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
—
PassesContext
403
—
Accurate passesContext
310
—
Pass accuracyContext
77%
—
Team ratingContext
6.56
—
FoulsContext
11.00
—
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levski Sofia
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km368 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kairat Almaty
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel4,283 km7,627 km in 14d
Schedule load30%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levski Sofia |
Kairat Almaty |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 30 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 29 Jul | 6.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 29 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 4,283 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 368 km | 7,627 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levski Sofia
Confirmed XI
92S. Vutsov(G)
20Álex Centelles
31N. Serafimov
50K. Dimitrov
21Aldair
19E. El Moubarik
18G. Trdin
35Serginho
17Everton Bala
7Reinaldo
11A. Oko-Flex
Kairat Almaty
Confirmed XI
1T. Anarbekov(G)
3Luís Mata
44L. da Silva
14A. Martynovich
24A. Mrynskiy
22Gustavo Mendonça
13J. Oksanen
8O. Baybek
19O. Jukkola
9Edmilson
28Marc Gual
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levski Sofia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Kairat Almaty
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Levski Sofia · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Kairat Almaty · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Levski Sofia | Kairat Almaty | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 1.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 2 |
| Levski Sofia | Kairat Almaty | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 1.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levski Sofia | Kairat Almaty | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | — | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | — | |
| Match total | 9.00 | — | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | — | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | — | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 5.50 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Levski Sofia | Kairat Almaty | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.33 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.33 | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.20 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Donatas Rumsas Lithuania · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 4.31
Red cards0.22league 0.24
Cards 5+37%league 43%
Fouls24.4league 25.9
Penalties0.15league 0.34
Home wins33%league 48%
Levski SofiaNo previous matches with this referee.
Kairat Almaty1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L20 Jan 26H · Club Brugge KV1–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levski Sofia4 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Kairat Almaty4 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Levski Sofia10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Kairat Almaty10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.