Levski Sofia vs Red Bull Salzburg – 17 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 17 · 17:45 Vivacom Arena – Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia

Levski Sofia

0–1Full time

Red Bull Salzburg

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Red Bull Salzburg were slight favourites.

Red Bull Salzburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Red Bull Salzburg. Levski Sofia had 21.9 days of rest, Red Bull Salzburg 21 and had to travel 987 km.

Away travel987 kmRest days21.9 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0

Levski Sofia33%

Draw25%

Red Bull Salzburg42%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.56

Levski Sofia36%

Draw26%

Red Bull Salzburg38%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.37

Levski Sofia34%

Draw25%

Red Bull Salzburg41%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.52

Levski Sofia26%

Draw23%

Red Bull Salzburg50%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.75

Levski Sofia33%

Draw25%

Red Bull Salzburg41%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.49

Over 2.5 56% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sofia)

No weather data yet

Referee · FinlandMohammad Al-Emara

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.50
Matches 18

Team strength

Levski Sofia

Red Bull Salzburg

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 40

26 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

24 AttackIn forecast 36

26 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Levski Sofia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Red Bull Salzburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Levski Sofia

Red Bull Salzburg

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

— xGVia Att/Def 1.35

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

— Goals minus xGContext +0.35

70% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.33 ShotsContext 12.50

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

27% On target shareContext 32%

5.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.83

43% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 12%

— OffsidesContext 1.60

13.17 Shots allowedContext 8.33

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.60 BlocksContext 2.00

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.17

63% Save rateContext 62%

53% PossessionIn forecast 57%

476 PassesContext 419

412 Accurate passesContext 343

87% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.00 FoulsContext 8.89

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.33

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Levski Sofia

Rest21.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Red Bull Salzburg

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel987 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Levski Sofia	Red Bull Salzburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	21.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 26 Aug	21UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 27 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	987 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	28.1	28

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Levski Sofia Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

92S. Vutsov(G)

3Maicon 4C. Makoun 50K. Dimitrov 21Aldair

18G. Trdin 35Serginho

20Álex Centelles 11A. Oko-Flex 17Everton Bala

7Reinaldo

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Red Bull Salzburg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

52C. Zawieschitzky(G)

31D. Schmid 21T. Drexler 44K. Boma 18N. Veratschnig

15B. Mazurek 32A. Barry

11Y. Vertessen 8S. Kitano 20E. Baidoo

9H. Tabaković

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Levski Sofia Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Red Bull Salzburg Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Levski Sofia-0.8 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Red Bull Salzburg+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Levski Sofia · Home No home games yet this season.

Red Bull Salzburg · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Levski Sofia	Red Bull Salzburg	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.91
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	56%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Levski Sofia	Red Bull Salzburg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	1.80
Conceded per game	0.88	1.50
Match goals	2.13	3.30	2.91
Over 1.5	50%	70%
Over 2.5	38%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	38%	50%
Both teams scored	25%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	63%	40%
Failed to score	25%	10%
Games	8	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Levski Sofia	Red Bull Salzburg	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.75
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Levski Sofia	Red Bull Salzburg	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	5.67
Corners conceded	4.00	4.50
Match total	8.67	10.17	10.75
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.00
Opponent cards	1.90	2.10
Match total	3.70	3.10	2.50
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mohammad Al-Emara Finland · 18 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.17league 2.78

Red cards0.17league 0.00

Cards 5+28%league 33%

Fouls22.1league 23.8

Penalties0.50league 0.11

Home wins39%league 44%

Levski Sofia

No previous matches with this referee.

Red Bull Salzburg

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.