Lille vs Angers – 2 Nov 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 2 · 16:15 Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq

Lille 7th · 17 pts · 10 played LDWWL

1–0Full time

Angers 13th · 10 pts · 10 played LLDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lille were clear favourites.

Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 18). Lille come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Lille had 3.9 days of rest, Angers 3.8 and had to travel 442 km.

Away travel442 kmRest days3.9 · 3.8Matches / 14d4 · 2

Lille69%

Draw19%

Angers12%

Expected goals 2.22 – 0.83

Lille72%

Draw18%

Angers10%

Expected goals 2.31 – 0.77

Lille69%

Draw19%

Angers12%

Expected goals 2.20 – 0.79

Lille61%

Draw22%

Angers17%

Expected goals 1.98 – 0.93

Lille71%

Draw18%

Angers11%

Expected goals 2.34 – 0.81

Over 2.5 59% Both score 51% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 95

Team strength

Lille

Angers

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 19

42 AttackIn forecast 22

60 DefenceIn forecast 12

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Angers

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lille

Angers

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.85 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.85

+0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

70% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.90 ShotsContext 8.70

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

31% On target shareContext 32%

11.90 Shots in the boxContext 6.11

71% Box shareContext 67%

13% ConversionContext 9%

1.38 OffsidesContext 2.29

10.00 Shots allowedContext 14.30

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

2.33 BlocksContext 3.70

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

64% Save rateContext 74%

58% PossessionIn forecast 38%

486 PassesContext 360

414 Accurate passesContext 296

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.73

13.10 FoulsContext 10.80

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.85

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

70% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.80 ShotsContext 8.70

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

32% On target shareContext 32%

11.90 Shots in the boxContext 6.11

73% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 9%

1.38 OffsidesContext 2.29

11.00 Shots allowedContext 14.30

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

2.50 BlocksContext 3.70

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

64% Save rateContext 74%

59% PossessionIn forecast 38%

503 PassesContext 360

427 Accurate passesContext 296

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.73

12.10 FoulsContext 10.80

14.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel0 km2,680 km in 14d

Schedule load40%High

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Angers

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel442 km1,311 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lille	Angers
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	High · 40	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	Yes	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct	3.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	442 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,680 km	1,311 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 4 / 5	2 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

24C. Verdonk 23A. Mandi 18C. Mbemba 12T. Meunier

21B. André 32A. Bouaddi

27Félix Correia 10H. Haraldsson 7M. Fernandez-Pardo

9O. Giroud

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Angers Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12H. Koffi(G)

3J. Ekomié 21J. Lefort 4O. Camara 2C. Arcus

10H. Abdelli 93H. Belkebla

7M. Sbaï 6L. Mouton 27L. Rao-Lisoa

11S. Chérif

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lille Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Angers Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lille-0.6 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Angers+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home 2.00points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.80

Angers · Away 0.40points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-3
Scored: 0.60
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Lille	Angers
Metz	W 6–1 H	D 1–1 A
Paris Saint Germain	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
Lyon	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Lorient	W 7–1 A	W 2–0 H
Monaco	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Stade Brestois 29	D 3–3 A	L 0–2 H
Points	11 of 18 · 1.83 per game	5 of 18 · 0.83 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Lille wins2 draws1 Angers wins

Goals per game1.17 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored33% Clean sheets50% · 17%

27 Apr 2025Angers0–2Lille
24 Aug 2024Lille2–0Angers
8 Apr 2023Angers1–0Lille
13 Nov 2022Lille1–0Angers
10 Apr 2022Angers1–1Lille
6 Nov 2021Lille1–1Angers

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lille	Angers	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	0.80
Conceded per game	1.30	1.40
Match goals	3.50	2.20	3.05
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	20%	59%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

	Lille	Angers	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	0.80
Conceded per game	1.40	1.40
Match goals	3.10	2.20	3.05
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	20%	59%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lille	Angers	League
Corners
Corners won	6.90	4.44
Corners conceded	4.00	4.44
Match total	10.90	8.88	9.27
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.50
Opponent cards	2.30	1.20
Match total	4.80	2.70	4.25
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	0% 0/10

	Lille	Angers	League
Corners
Corners won	7.80	4.44
Corners conceded	4.40	4.44
Match total	12.20	8.88	9.27
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.50
Opponent cards	2.30	1.20
Match total	4.90	2.70	4.25
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 95 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.49league 3.89

Red cards0.24league 0.31

Cards 5+33%league 39%

Fouls24.1league 24.5

Penalties0.36league 0.49

Home wins38%league 52%

Lille11 with this referee

Record4-3-4 Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.7 Pens for · against2 · 2

W12 Apr 25A · Toulouse2–12
D1 Nov 24H · Lyon1–13
D21 Sep 24H · Strasbourg3–32
D16 Sep 23A · Rennes2–24
W20 May 23H · Marseille2–13

Angers1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L21 Aug 22H · Stade Brestois 291–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.