Lille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were clear favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lille. Lille had 7 days of rest, Auxerre 7 and had to travel 315 km.
Away travel315 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lille68%
Draw21%
Auxerre12%
Lille65%
Draw21%
Auxerre14%
Lille66%
Draw21%
Auxerre12%
Lille61%
Draw24%
Auxerre16%
Lille67%
Draw21%
Auxerre12%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceWilly Delajod
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 109
Team strength
Lille
Auxerre
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
42
AttackIn forecast
39
60
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LilleAuxerre
1.58
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.97
1.06
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
73%
Scored inContext
52%
39%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
13.21
ShotsContext
10.48
4.61
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
35%
On target shareContext
32%
9.42
Shots in the boxContext
6.83
70%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.05
8.91
Shots allowedContext
11.33
3.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.42
2.50
BlocksContext
2.97
2.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.12
68%
Save rateContext
71%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
483
PassesContext
369
413
Accurate passesContext
298
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.61
FoulsContext
13.21
12.79
Fouls sufferedContext
13.55
2.12
Yellow cardsContext
1.91
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
0.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
70%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.70
ShotsContext
10.80
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
44%
On target shareContext
39%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
69%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.71
7.80
Shots allowedContext
11.70
2.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.88
BlocksContext
3.10
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
75%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
469
PassesContext
363
403
Accurate passesContext
292
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.00
FoulsContext
13.40
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lille
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,659 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Auxerre
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel315 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lille |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 315 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,659 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 97.8 | 96.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
32A. Bouaddi
6N. Bentaleb
21B. André
27Félix Correia
10H. Haraldsson
17N. Mukau
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
14G. Mensah
13Telli Siwe
20S. Diomandé
27L. Sy
42E. Owusu
8N. Ahamada
19D. Namaso
5K. Danois
10L. Sinayoko
9S. Mara
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lille
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Auxerre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lille+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- Auxerre-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Lille · Home
1.81points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-3
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.94
Auxerre · Away
0.56points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-6-9
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lille | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Paris FC | W 1–0 AW 4–2 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Nice | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Toulouse | W 4–0 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Lens | W 3–0 HL 0–3 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Marseille | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Rennes | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H | L 0–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Lorient | D 1–1 HW 7–1 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Nantes | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Angers | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | W 3–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Metz | D 0–0 AW 6–1 H | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 58 of 96 · 1.81 per game | 31 of 96 · 0.97 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Lille wins2 draws0 Auxerre wins
Goals per game2.40 – 1.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 14 Dec 2025Auxerre3–4Lille
- 20 Apr 2025Lille3–1Auxerre
- 10 Jan 2025Auxerre0–0Lille
- 22 Apr 2023Auxerre1–1Lille
- 7 Aug 2022Lille4–1Auxerre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lille | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.58 | 0.97 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.06 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 2.30 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 45% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 42% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 39% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 48% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Lille | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.60 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lille | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.58 | 4.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.73 | 4.48 | |
| Match total | 9.31 | 9.12 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 17/33 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 14/33 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 12/33 | 27% 9/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.27 | 2.12 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.97 | 2.64 | |
| Match total | 4.24 | 4.76 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 21/33 | 76% 25/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 14/33 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Lille | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.40 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.20 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Willy Delajod France · 109 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 3.66
Red cards0.26league 0.26
Cards 5+37%league 36%
Fouls24.6league 23.6
Penalties0.40league 0.37
Home wins41%league 46%
Lille14 with this referee
Record5-4-5
Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against4 · 4
Reds4
- L25 Jan 26H · Strasbourg1–42
- W30 Nov 25A · LE Havre1–04
- W24 Aug 25H · Monaco1–01
- W17 May 25H · Reims2–10
- L25 Jan 25A · Strasbourg1–22
Auxerre3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D11 Apr 26H · Nantes0–00
- L14 Jan 23A · Lens0–13
- L3 Sep 22H · Marseille0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lille33 games · scored 52 · conceded 35
5
3
0-15
5
4
16-30
5
6
31-45
9
9
46-60
5
7
61-75
23
6
76-90
Auxerre33 games · scored 32 · conceded 44
6
5
0-15
4
9
16-30
6
6
31-45
3
7
46-60
8
5
61-75
5
12
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 14 · conceded 6
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
6
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
