Lille vs LE Havre – 3 May 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 32 Sun, May 3 · 14:00 Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq

Lille 3rd · 57 pts · 31 played WWWDW

1–1Full time

LE Havre 14th · 31 pts · 31 played LDDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lille were clear favourites.

Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lille. Lille had 6.9 days of rest, LE Havre 6.9 and had to travel 252 km.

Away travel252 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lille72%

Draw18%

LE Havre10%

Expected goals 2.32 – 0.74

Lille68%

Draw20%

LE Havre12%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.82

Lille72%

Draw18%

LE Havre10%

Expected goals 2.27 – 0.74

Lille65%

Draw21%

LE Havre14%

Expected goals 2.07 – 0.83

Lille72%

Draw18%

LE Havre10%

Expected goals 2.28 – 0.74

Over 2.5 59% Both score 48% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

No weather data yet

RefereeGuillaume Paradis

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.08
Matches 13

Team strength

Lille

LE Havre

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

42 AttackIn forecast 20

60 DefenceIn forecast 22

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

LE Havre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lille

LE Havre

1.61 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.94

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.35

1.49 xGVia Att/Def 1.09

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

71% Scored inContext 58%

39% Clean sheetsContext 23%

13.16 ShotsContext 10.84

4.52 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.93

34% On target shareContext 33%

9.35 Shots in the boxContext 6.67

70% Box shareContext 59%

12% ConversionContext 9%

1.58 OffsidesContext 2.24

9.19 Shots allowedContext 12.16

3.23 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.03

2.55 BlocksContext 3.55

2.24 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86

68% Save rateContext 70%

55% PossessionIn forecast 47%

486 PassesContext 374

416 Accurate passesContext 305

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.82

10.68 FoulsContext 13.10

12.74 Fouls sufferedContext 13.87

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.84

0.16 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

0.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

70% Scored inContext 60%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.00 ShotsContext 10.90

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.13

40% On target shareContext 30%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

67% Box shareContext 61%

14% ConversionContext 10%

2.10 OffsidesContext 2.78

8.00 Shots allowedContext 13.80

2.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

2.67 BlocksContext 3.50

1.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88

71% Save rateContext 78%

55% PossessionIn forecast 50%

494 PassesContext 377

426 Accurate passesContext 309

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.86

9.50 FoulsContext 12.90

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 14.90

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.30

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km409 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

LE Havre

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel252 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lille	LE Havre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Apr	6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	252 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	409 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.3	7.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

15R. Perraud 23A. Mandi 3N. Ngoy 12T. Meunier

21B. André 32A. Bouaddi

27Félix Correia 10H. Haraldsson 17N. Mukau

7M. Fernandez-Pardo

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

LE Havre Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

99M. Diaw(G)

18Y. Zouaoui 4G. Lloris 15A. Seko 7L. Nego

19L. Gourna-Douath 26S. Ebonog

45I. Soumaré 17S. Boufal 13F. Doucouré

25M. Samatta

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lille Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

LE Havre Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lille+0.7 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
LE Havre-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home 1.87points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 8-4-3
Scored: 1.53
Conceded: 0.93

LE Havre · Away 0.53points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 1-5-9
Scored: 0.60
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Lille	LE Havre
Paris FC	W 1–0 AW 4–2 H	L 2–3 AD 0–0 H
Nice	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 AW 3–1 H
Toulouse	W 4–0 AW 2–1 H	W 2–1 HD 0–0 A
Lens	W 3–0 HL 0–3 A	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Marseille	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H	L 2–6 A
Rennes	W 2–1 AL 0–2 H	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
Lorient	D 1–1 HW 7–1 A	D 1–1 H
Nantes	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Angers	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Stade Brestois 29	D 1–1 HD 3–3 A	L 0–2 AW 1–0 H
Metz	D 0–0 AW 6–1 H	D 4–4 HD 0–0 A
Lyon	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Strasbourg	L 1–4 HL 0–2 A	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–3 AD 1–1 H	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Auxerre	W 4–3 A	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A
Monaco	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A
Points	54 of 90 · 1.80 per game	31 of 90 · 1.03 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

4 Lille wins0 draws1 LE Havre wins

Goals per game2.00 – 0.40 Over 2.560% Both scored20% Clean sheets80% · 0%

30 Nov 2025LE Havre0–1Lille
8 Feb 2025Lille1–2LE Havre
28 Sep 2024LE Havre0–3Lille
17 Feb 2024Lille3–0LE Havre
1 Oct 2023LE Havre0–2Lille

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lille	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.61	0.94
Conceded per game	1.10	1.35
Match goals	2.71	2.29	3.06
Over 1.5	65%	61%
Over 2.5	42%	35%	59%
Over 3.5	23%	19%
Both teams scored	39%	52%	48%
Clean sheets	39%	23%
Failed to score	29%	42%
Games	31	31

	Lille	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.10
Conceded per game	0.60	1.60
Match goals	2.00	2.70	3.06
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	30%	59%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	48%
Clean sheets	50%	10%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lille	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	5.45	4.24
Corners conceded	3.65	4.62
Match total	9.10	8.86	9.25
Over 8.5	52% 16/31	55% 16/29
Over 9.5	42% 13/31	38% 11/29
Over 10.5	35% 11/31	34% 10/29
Cards
Cards	2.26	1.97
Opponent cards	1.97	2.16
Match total	4.23	4.13	3.95
Over 3.5	61% 19/31	68% 21/31
Over 4.5	42% 13/31	32% 10/31

	Lille	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	3.30
Corners conceded	3.60	4.80
Match total	7.10	8.10	9.25
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	2.10
Match total	4.30	4.30	3.95
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Guillaume Paradis 13 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.85league 3.68

Red cards0.08league 0.27

Cards 5+38%league 36%

Fouls24.9league 23.6

Penalties0.08league 0.37

Home wins38%league 46%

Lille1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D6 Feb 26A · Metz0–01

LE Havre2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

D28 Sep 25A · Metz0–02
L24 Aug 25H · Lens1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.