Lille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Lille had 2.9 days of rest, Lyon 2.8 and had to travel 555 km.
Away travel555 kmRest days2.9 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Lille45%
Draw26%
Lyon29%
Lille45%
Draw27%
Lyon28%
Lille46%
Draw26%
Lyon28%
Lille38%
Draw26%
Lyon36%
Lille45%
Draw26%
Lyon29%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 47
Team strength
Lille
Lyon
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
42
AttackIn forecast
55
60
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LilleLyon
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
2.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
-0.50
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
80%
16.60
ShotsContext
13.00
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
31%
On target shareContext
40%
11.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
70%
Box shareContext
71%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.00
10.60
Shots allowedContext
12.40
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.20
BlocksContext
4.80
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
61%
Save rateContext
71%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
487
PassesContext
480
412
Accurate passesContext
422
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.05
11.80
FoulsContext
15.20
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
15.00
ShotsContext
13.40
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
29%
On target shareContext
36%
11.22
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
71%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.38
9.70
Shots allowedContext
11.30
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
2.11
BlocksContext
3.60
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
66%
Save rateContext
71%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
512
PassesContext
490
438
Accurate passesContext
429
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.09
10.70
FoulsContext
13.70
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lille
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km63 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Lyon
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel555 km2,540 km in 14d
Schedule load34%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lille |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Moderate · 34 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 555 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 63 km | 2,540 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lille
Confirmed XI
16A. Bodart(G)
24C. Verdonk
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
22Tiago Santos
32A. Bouaddi
17N. Mukau
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
10H. Haraldsson
27Félix Correia
9O. Giroud
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
3N. Tagliafico
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
6F. Tessmann
23T. Morton
11M. Fofana
8C. Tolisso
7A. Karabec
44Khalis Merah
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lille
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lille-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Lyon+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Lille · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Lyon · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Lille | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | L 0–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Lille wins3 draws3 Lyon wins
Goals per game1.38 – 1.38
Over 2.538%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 25%
- 5 Apr 2025Lyon2–1Lille
- 1 Nov 2024Lille1–1Lyon
- 6 May 2024Lille3–4Lyon
- 26 Nov 2023Lyon0–2Lille
- 10 Mar 2023Lille3–3Lyon
- 30 Oct 2022Lyon1–0Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lille | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 2.00 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 80% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Lille | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 1.83 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 33% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 17% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 83% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lille | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 11.80 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 4/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.20 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Lille | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 10.90 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.10 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.17league 3.70
Red cards0.38league 0.36
Cards 5+51%league 40%
Fouls26.7league 24.2
Penalties0.36league 0.54
Home wins45%league 64%
Lille6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W30 Mar 25H · Lens1–01
- W24 Nov 24H · Rennes1–03
- L25 Feb 24A · Toulouse1–30
- D12 Nov 23H · Toulouse1–13
- L8 Apr 23A · Angers0–13
Lyon3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W14 Apr 24H · Stade Brestois 294–35
- W9 Mar 24A · Lorient2–00
- L19 Aug 23H · Montpellier1–45
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lille5 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
8
76-90
Lyon5 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
6
46-60
2
3
61-75
10
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
