Lille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were clear favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 15). Lille had 14.1 days of rest, Paris FC 16 and had to travel 205 km.
Away travel205 kmRest days14.1 · 16Matches / 14d0 · 0
Lille74%
Draw17%
Paris FC10%
Lille73%
Draw17%
Paris FC10%
Lille74%
Draw17%
Paris FC9%
Lille67%
Draw20%
Paris FC14%
Lille73%
Draw17%
Paris FC10%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Millot
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 80
Team strength
Lille
Paris FC
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
42
AttackIn forecast
46
60
DefenceIn forecast
38
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LilleParis FC
1.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
67%
Scored inContext
83%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
15.75
ShotsContext
13.17
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.08
32%
On target shareContext
31%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
69%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.30
OffsidesContext
2.70
9.25
Shots allowedContext
10.67
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.36
BlocksContext
3.55
2.18
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
65%
Save rateContext
62%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
489
PassesContext
510
417
Accurate passesContext
443
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.25
FoulsContext
10.92
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.60
ShotsContext
13.30
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
36%
On target shareContext
29%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
68%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.14
OffsidesContext
2.88
9.60
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.88
BlocksContext
3.60
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
66%
Save rateContext
69%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
496
PassesContext
515
422
Accurate passesContext
445
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.40
FoulsContext
10.90
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lille
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Paris FC
Rest16 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel205 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lille |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 16Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 205 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
18C. Mbemba
12T. Meunier
11O. Sahraoui
32A. Bouaddi
6N. Bentaleb
27Félix Correia
9O. Giroud
29H. Igamane
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
28T. De Smet
5M. Mbow
31Samir Sophian Chergui
14H. Traoré
17Adama Camara
4V. Marchetti
33P. Lees-Melou
13M. Cafaro
9W. Geubbels
10I. Kebbal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lille
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris FC
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lille-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Paris FC+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Lille · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 0.67
Paris FC · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Lille | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Nice | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Metz | W 6–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Nantes | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| Lens | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Lorient | W 7–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Monaco | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 3–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 16 of 30 · 1.60 per game | 14 of 30 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lille | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.92 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.17 | 3.25 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 58% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 67% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Lille | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.10 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lille | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.75 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.58 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 9.66 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 8/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 8/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% 7/12 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.08 | |
| Match total | 4.66 | 4.00 | 4.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 8/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 7/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Lille | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 9.90 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.30 | 4.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Millot France · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 3.83
Red cards0.28league 0.32
Cards 5+36%league 38%
Fouls25.4league 24.3
Penalties0.24league 0.49
Home wins43%league 51%
Lille9 with this referee
Record3-3-3
Cards · opp.3.1 · 2.8
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W26 Oct 25H · Metz6–13
- L15 Mar 25A · Nantes0–13
- D1 Dec 24A · Montpellier2–26
- W21 Apr 24H · Strasbourg1–02
- D10 Mar 24H · Rennes2–25
Paris FC1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W3 Oct 25H · Lorient2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lille12 games · scored 23 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
12
2
76-90
Paris FC12 games · scored 18 · conceded 21
2
3
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
