Lille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were slight favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 63). Absences weigh more on Paris Saint Germain. Lille had 3.1 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 8 and had to travel 205 km.
Away travel205 kmRest days3.1 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 2
Lille23%
Draw24%
Paris Saint Germain52%
Lille22%
Draw25%
Paris Saint Germain53%
Lille21%
Draw24%
Paris Saint Germain55%
Lille18%
Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain60%
Lille24%
Draw26%
Paris Saint Germain51%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 104
Team strength
Lille
Paris Saint Germain
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
90
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
42
AttackIn forecast
91
60
DefenceIn forecast
83
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LilleParis Saint Germain
2.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.81
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.56
67%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
15.83
ShotsContext
15.50
4.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.83
31%
On target shareContext
38%
11.17
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
71%
Box shareContext
54%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.00
9.67
Shots allowedContext
8.83
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
2.17
BlocksContext
3.50
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
60%
Save rateContext
67%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
72%
474
PassesContext
776
401
Accurate passesContext
717
85%
Pass accuracyContext
92%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.10
13.17
FoulsContext
9.00
14.67
Fouls sufferedContext
9.17
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.98
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.76
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
15.60
ShotsContext
17.30
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.10
29%
On target shareContext
41%
11.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
74%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.43
10.30
Shots allowedContext
8.40
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.63
2.22
BlocksContext
3.13
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
63%
Save rateContext
75%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
502
PassesContext
699
423
Accurate passesContext
639
84%
Pass accuracyContext
92%
6.97
Team ratingContext
7.19
12.20
FoulsContext
9.60
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lille
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,410 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Paris Saint Germain
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel205 km1,321 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lille |
Paris Saint Germain |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 205 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,410 km | 1,321 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 12 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
12T. Meunier
21B. André
32A. Bouaddi
6N. Bentaleb
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
9O. Giroud
10H. Haraldsson
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
30L. Chevalier(G)
21L. Hernández
51W. Pacho
4Beraldo
33W. Zaïre-Emery
47Quentin Ndjantou
19K. Lee
24S. Mayulu
29B. Barcola
9Gonçalo Ramos
49I. Mbaye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lille
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lille+1.9 pp
- Draw+0.7 pp
- Paris Saint Germain-2.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Lille · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Paris Saint Germain · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Lille | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | L 0–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Toulouse | W 2–1 H | W 6–3 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Lille wins1 draws7 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game1.25 – 3.63
Over 2.588%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 1 Mar 2025Paris Saint Germain4–1Lille
- 1 Sep 2024Lille1–3Paris Saint Germain
- 10 Feb 2024Paris Saint Germain3–1Lille
- 17 Dec 2023Lille1–1Paris Saint Germain
- 19 Feb 2023Paris Saint Germain4–3Lille
- 21 Aug 2022Lille1–7Paris Saint Germain
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lille | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.17 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 2.67 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 17% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Lille | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.67 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 17% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 17% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 17% | |
| Games | 8 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lille | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.17 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.84 | 9.20 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 2.17 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Lille | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 9.12 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 0.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.80 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 104 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 3.76
Red cards0.20league 0.34
Cards 5+47%league 37%
Fouls24.9league 24.5
Penalties0.38league 0.52
Home wins53%league 55%
Lille9 with this referee
Record4-3-2
Cards · opp.3.1 · 2.3
Pens for · against4 · 1
- W22 Feb 25H · Monaco2–14
- W6 Dec 24H · Stade Brestois 293–11
- W26 Oct 24A · Lens2–05
- L1 Sep 24H · Paris Saint Germain1–33
- L6 May 24H · Lyon3–43
Paris Saint Germain15 with this referee
Record11-2-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against5 · 1
Reds2
- W17 Aug 25A · Nantes1–01
- W1 Feb 25A · Stade Brestois 295–20
- W15 Dec 24H · Lyon3–12
- W1 Sep 24A · Lille3–12
- W31 Mar 24A · Marseille2–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lille6 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
8
76-90
Paris Saint Germain6 games · scored 12 · conceded 4
4
1
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
3
61-75
10
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 26 · conceded 6
6
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
6
46-60
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
