Lille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Stade Brestois 29. Lille had 7.9 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 7 and had to travel 605 km.
Away travel605 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lille50%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2924%
Lille52%
Draw25%
Stade Brestois 2923%
Lille50%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2923%
Lille43%
Draw28%
Stade Brestois 2929%
Lille49%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2924%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceHakim Ben el Salem Hadj
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 10
Team strength
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
42
AttackIn forecast
47
60
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LilleStade Brestois 29
1.62
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
62%
Scored inContext
67%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
13.71
ShotsContext
11.52
4.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
33%
On target shareContext
34%
9.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.14
69%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.64
9.81
Shots allowedContext
11.95
3.62
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.55
BlocksContext
3.45
2.42
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
64%
Save rateContext
64%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
470
PassesContext
374
400
Accurate passesContext
297
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.38
FoulsContext
13.38
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.43
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.81
0.24
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
50%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.50
ShotsContext
10.40
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
28%
On target shareContext
39%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
61%
Box shareContext
57%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
9.80
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.50
BlocksContext
3.10
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
60%
Save rateContext
64%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
470
PassesContext
378
407
Accurate passesContext
299
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.74
9.00
FoulsContext
14.20
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.40
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lille
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,651 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Stade Brestois 29
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel605 km2,089 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lille |
Stade Brestois 29 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 6 Feb | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 605 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,651 km | 2,089 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
4Alexsandro Ribeiro
18C. Mbemba
32A. Bouaddi
10H. Haraldsson
21B. André
27Félix Correia
35Soriba Diaoune
17N. Mukau
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
30G. Coudert(G)
27D. Guindo
4M. Diaz
5B. Chardonnet
77K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
14R. Labeau-Lascary
7É. Dina Ebimbe
10R. Del Castillo
19L. Ajorque
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lille
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Stade Brestois 29
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lille-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Stade Brestois 29+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Lille · Home
1.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-3
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 1.20
Stade Brestois 29 · Away
0.80points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-6
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lille | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| Metz | D 0–0 AW 6–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Rennes | L 0–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Auxerre | W 4–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | W 4–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Nice | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 AW 4–1 H |
| Nantes | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Lens | L 0–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Toulouse | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Lorient | W 7–1 A | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Monaco | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 32 of 60 · 1.60 per game | 25 of 60 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Lille wins4 draws2 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game1.22 – 1.22
Over 2.533%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets22% · 33%
- 17 Aug 2025Stade Brestois 293–3Lille
- 10 May 2025Stade Brestois 292–0Lille
- 6 Dec 2024Lille3–1Stade Brestois 29
- 17 Mar 2024Stade Brestois 291–1Lille
- 22 Oct 2023Lille1–0Stade Brestois 29
- 24 Feb 2023Lille2–1Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lille | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.62 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.05 | 2.90 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 48% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 33% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Lille | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.90 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lille | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.86 | 4.74 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 4.84 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 9.58 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 13/21 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 11/21 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 10/21 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.24 | 1.95 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.76 | |
| Match total | 4.14 | 3.71 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 12/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 9/21 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Lille | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 9.13 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.40 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj France · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.66
Red cards0.30league 0.31
Cards 5+20%league 36%
Fouls22.5league 24.1
Penalties0.50league 0.41
Home wins50%league 49%
Lille1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W27 Apr 25A · Angers2–05
Stade Brestois 291 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L17 May 25A · Nice0–64
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lille21 games · scored 34 · conceded 30
4
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
7
46-60
2
7
61-75
20
5
76-90
Stade Brestois 2921 games · scored 28 · conceded 33
5
5
0-15
4
7
16-30
5
6
31-45
5
3
46-60
2
5
61-75
7
7
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
4
46-60
5
61-75
6
2
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
