UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs Play-offs Thu, Aug 27 · 18:00 Åråsen Stadion, Kjeller
Lillestrom 13th · 1 pts · 1 played
First leg0–0 2–1Full time
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 12th · 1 pts · 1 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,184 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Lillestrom—%
Draw—%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Kjeller)

No weather data yet

RefereeJoao Pinheiro
  • Cards per match 2.7
  • Penalties per match 0.33
  • Matches 9

Team strength

LillestromEgnatia Rrogozhinë
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
27 Current StrengthIn forecast 19
23 AttackIn forecast 19
31 DefenceIn forecast 22
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lillestrom

Attack—
Defense risk—

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LillestromEgnatia Rrogozhinë
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
— Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext 70%
— Clean sheetsContext 20%
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext 3.60
— Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 0 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lillestrom
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km4,367 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,184 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lillestrom Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 10Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,184 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways4,367 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 11 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one21.1—

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lillestrom Confirmed XI
4-3-3
12P. Dahlberg(G)
11F. Elkaer 5S. Foss 28L. Gabrielsen 2Lars Ranger
17E. Kitolano 29Y. Ibrahimaj 14G. Nyheim
20Vá 8F. Gulbrandsen 26W. Paintsil
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Confirmed XI
4-3-1-2
98M. Dajsinani(G)
16E. Ndreca 28E. Sota 33E. Bitri 55G. Smajli
7Fernando Medeiros 6A. Aleksi 20K. Loukili
10A. Albanese
77I. Gruda 2D. Adjessa

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lillestrom Absences are shown before kick-off
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lillestrom · Home No home games yet this season.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Lillestrom wins1 draws0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 100%
  • 20 Aug 2026Egnatia Rrogozhinë0–0Lillestrom

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LillestromEgnatia RrogozhinëForecast
Scored per game 0.000.00
Conceded per game 0.000.00
Match goals 0.000.00
Over 1.5 0%0%
Over 2.5 0%0%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 0%0%
Clean sheets 100%100%
Failed to score 100%100%
Games11
LillestromEgnatia RrogozhinëForecast
Scored per game 0.001.33
Conceded per game 0.001.33
Match goals 0.002.67
Over 1.5 0%67%
Over 2.5 0%33%
Over 3.5 0%33%
Both teams scored 0%67%
Clean sheets 100%33%
Failed to score 100%33%
Games13

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LillestromEgnatia RrogozhinëLeague
Corners
Corners won4.006.00
Corners conceded6.004.00
Match total10.0010.009.57
Over 8.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 9.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 10.50% 0/10% 0/1
Cards
Cards1.001.00
Opponent cards1.001.00
Match total2.002.004.21
Over 3.50% 0/10% 0/1
Over 4.50% 0/10% 0/1
LillestromEgnatia RrogozhinëLeague
Corners
Corners won4.006.00
Corners conceded6.004.00
Match total10.0010.009.57
Over 8.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 9.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 10.50% 0/10% 0/1
Cards
Cards1.004.00
Opponent cards1.001.80
Match total2.005.804.21
Over 3.50% 0/170% 7/10
Over 4.50% 0/170% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Pinheiro 9 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.56league 4.00
Red cards0.11league 0.21
Cards 5+0%league 43%
Fouls22.6league 22.9
Penalties0.33league 0.57
Home wins44%league 57%
Lillestrom

No previous matches with this referee.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Lillestrom1 games · scored 0 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Egnatia Rrogozhinë1 games · scored 0 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Lillestrom1 games · scored 0 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Egnatia Rrogozhinë9 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
5 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
4 3 31-45
3 3 46-60
4 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.