Lommel United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lommel United were slight favourites.
Lommel United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Charleroi. Lommel United had 7.9 days of rest, Charleroi 7.1 and had to travel 110 km.
Away travel110 kmRest days7.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lommel United43%
Draw25%
Charleroi32%
Lommel United49%
Draw25%
Charleroi27%
Lommel United43%
Draw25%
Charleroi32%
Lommel United36%
Draw25%
Charleroi39%
Lommel United44%
Draw25%
Charleroi31%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lommel)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Van Damme
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 26
Team strength
Lommel United
Charleroi
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
32
AttackIn forecast
43
41
DefenceIn forecast
50
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Lommel UnitedCharleroi
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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2.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
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xGVia Att/Def
1.52
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
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Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
86%
Scored inContext
90%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.29
ShotsContext
13.50
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
40%
On target shareContext
34%
7.29
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
75%
Box shareContext
66%
23%
ConversionContext
11%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.43
17.14
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
5.14
BlocksContext
3.88
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
82%
Save rateContext
83%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
398
PassesContext
400
313
Accurate passesContext
333
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.11
Team ratingContext
7.01
9.29
FoulsContext
10.10
12.86
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lommel United
D
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 48 · 1 pts vs 1.3 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
- D8 AugA · St. Truiden1–11.0 xPts
Charleroi
W
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel110 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 3 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · +1.2 vs expected
- W9 AugH · OH Leuven3–11.8 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lommel United |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 8 Aug | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 9 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 110 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Lommel United
Confirmed XI
23M. Pieklak(G)
34Henry Oware
5Dries Wouters
3T. Eyoma
2J. van Duiven
44I. Dada-Mascoll
6J. Pelupessy
10Tom Reyners
15Lucas Schoofs
21S. Appuah
30R. Seuntjens
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
1M. Delavallee(G)
24M. Nzita
44M. Sow
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi
6A. Boukamir
17A. Bernier
8J. Romsaas
14P. Pflücke
9A. Bojang
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lommel United
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lommel United+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Lommel United · Home
No home games yet this season.
Charleroi · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lommel United | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Lommel United | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 1 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lommel United | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.00 | 10.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 4.00 | 2.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Lommel United | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.29 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.29 | 10.80 | 10.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.14 | 3.70 | 2.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Van Damme 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.88league 2.59
Red cards0.15league 0.12
Cards 5+42%league 24%
Fouls22.7league 21.7
Penalties0.42league 0.35
Home wins31%league 47%
Lommel UnitedNo previous matches with this referee.
Charleroi4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L22 Feb 26A · KVC Westerlo1–22
- D3 Aug 25H · St. Truiden1–15
- L23 Feb 24H · Genk0–12
- D20 Aug 23A · Genk0–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lommel United1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Charleroi1 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Lommel United7 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
