Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Fri, Sep 4 · 19:45 Soeverein Stadion, Lommel
Lommel United 8th · 7 pts · 4 played
0–1Full time
Club Brugge KV 4th · 9 pts · 4 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Club Brugge KV were slight favourites.

Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 37). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lommel United. Lommel United had 6 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 5.3 and had to travel 146 km.

Away travel146 kmRest days6 · 5.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lommel United24%
Draw24%
Club Brugge KV53%
Expected goals 1.10 – 1.75
Lommel United24%
Draw24%
Club Brugge KV52%
Expected goals 1.06 – 1.69
Lommel United24%
Draw24%
Club Brugge KV53%
Expected goals 1.10 – 1.75
Lommel United18%
Draw21%
Club Brugge KV60%
Expected goals 0.99 – 1.96
Lommel United25%
Draw24%
Club Brugge KV51%
Expected goals 1.11 – 1.69
Over 2.5 54% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lommel)

No weather data yet

Referee—Not recorded

Team strength

Lommel UnitedClub Brugge KV
37 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73
36 Current StrengthIn forecast 75
32 AttackIn forecast 86
41 DefenceIn forecast 58
51 Form indexContext 64
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lommel United

Attack—
Defense risk—

Club Brugge KV

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lommel UnitedClub Brugge KV
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
1.06 xGVia Att/Def 2.25
1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97
+0.44 Goals minus xGContext -0.25
75% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 75%
10.75 ShotsContext 17.75
3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
26% On target shareContext 34%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.00
65% Box shareContext 71%
14% ConversionContext 11%
3.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
22.75 Shots allowedContext 12.25
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
9.00 BlocksContext 4.50
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25
81% Save rateContext 81%
42% PossessionIn forecast 69%
397 PassesContext 692
326 Accurate passesContext 624
82% Pass accuracyContext 90%
7.14 Team ratingContext 7.33
7.25 FoulsContext 6.75
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.25
This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
1.06 xGVia Att/Def 2.40
1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04
+0.94 Goals minus xGContext +0.30
80% Scored inContext 100%
40% Clean sheetsContext 70%
9.90 ShotsContext 18.90
3.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.10
35% On target shareContext 38%
7.20 Shots in the boxContext 13.90
70% Box shareContext 72%
20% ConversionContext 14%
2.25 OffsidesContext 1.63
17.90 Shots allowedContext 13.70
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
5.80 BlocksContext 5.00
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
82% Save rateContext 86%
44% PossessionIn forecast 59%
404 PassesContext 559
323 Accurate passesContext 487
80% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.14 Team ratingContext 7.32
8.70 FoulsContext 8.00
11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00
1.10 Yellow cardsContext 0.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lommel United
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km291 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 51 · 7 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
  • W29 AugA · Cercle Brugge1–01.2 xPts
  • W23 AugH · KVC Westerlo4–01.9 xPts
  • L16 AugH · Charleroi0–11.6 xPts
  • D8 AugA · St. Truiden1–11.0 xPts
Club Brugge KV
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel146 km77 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 9 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected
  • L30 AugA · Gent1–21.8 xPts
  • W23 AugH · Cercle Brugge1–02.5 xPts
  • W15 AugA · OH Leuven3–02.3 xPts
  • W7 AugH · Kortrijk3–02.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lommel United Club Brugge KV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 29 Aug5.3Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 30 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km146 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways291 km77 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one83.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lommel United Confirmed XI
4-1-4-1
23M. Pieklak(G)
4S. Adewoye 5Dries Wouters 3T. Eyoma 2J. van Duiven
6J. Pelupessy
11S. Appuah 10Tom Reyners 15Lucas Schoofs 7J. Talvitie
9D. Konadu
Club Brugge KV Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1Y. Sommer(G)
65J. Seys 44B. Mechele 3H. Lee 64K. Sabbe
20H. Vanaken 8F. Potts
67M. Diakhon 17R. Vermant 10H. Vetlesen
7N. Tresoldi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lommel United Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Lommel United+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lommel United · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.50
Club Brugge KV · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentLommel UnitedClub Brugge KV
Cercle Brugge W 1–0 A W 1–0 H
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Lommel UnitedClub Brugge KVForecast
Scored per game 1.502.00
Conceded per game 0.500.50
Match goals 2.002.50 2.86
Over 1.5 50%75%
Over 2.5 25%75% 54%
Over 3.5 25%0%
Both teams scored 25%25% 55%
Clean sheets 50%75%
Failed to score 25%0%
Games44
Lommel UnitedClub Brugge KVForecast
Scored per game 1.502.20
Conceded per game 0.500.90
Match goals 2.003.10 2.86
Over 1.5 50%90%
Over 2.5 25%90% 54%
Over 3.5 25%20%
Both teams scored 25%70% 55%
Clean sheets 50%30%
Failed to score 25%0%
Games410

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Lommel UnitedClub Brugge KVLeague
Corners
Corners won3.259.00
Corners conceded7.752.50
Match total11.0011.509.64
Over 8.575% 3/450% 2/4
Over 9.550% 2/450% 2/4
Over 10.550% 2/450% 2/4
Cards
Cards1.001.25
Opponent cards0.751.50
Match total1.752.752.81
Over 3.525% 1/425% 1/4
Over 4.525% 1/425% 1/4
Lommel UnitedClub Brugge KVLeague
Corners
Corners won3.406.90
Corners conceded7.404.60
Match total10.8011.509.64
Over 8.580% 8/1060% 6/10
Over 9.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 10.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.101.00
Opponent cards1.701.60
Match total2.802.602.81
Over 3.540% 4/1020% 2/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Lommel United4 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 76-90
Club Brugge KV4 games · scored 8 · conceded 2
0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
1 1 76-90
Lommel United10 games · scored 20 · conceded 7
4 0-15
4 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
4 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 2 76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 27 · conceded 5
3 0-15
5 16-30
6 1 31-45
5 1 46-60
3 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
St. Truiden Union St. Gilloise 03 Anderlecht Kortrijk 10 Gent OH Leuven 10 Lommel United Club Brugge KV 01 KV Mechelen KVC Westerlo 04 Standard Liege Antwerp 10