Lommel United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lommel United were slight favourites.
Lommel United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lommel United. Lommel United had 7 days of rest, KV Mechelen 8 and had to travel 63 km.
Away travel63 kmRest days7 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lommel United55%
Draw24%
KV Mechelen22%
Lommel United54%
Draw24%
KV Mechelen22%
Lommel United55%
Draw24%
KV Mechelen22%
Lommel United47%
Draw25%
KV Mechelen28%
Lommel United55%
Draw23%
KV Mechelen21%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lommel)
No weather data yet
RefereeWesli De Cremer
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 36
Team strength
Lommel United
KV Mechelen
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
32
AttackIn forecast
18
41
DefenceIn forecast
23
36
Form indexContext
8
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Lommel UnitedKV Mechelen
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
50%
Scored inContext
33%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.17
ShotsContext
11.00
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
28%
On target shareContext
27%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.83
63%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.80
21.83
Shots allowedContext
15.17
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
7.50
BlocksContext
3.33
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
70%
Save rateContext
58%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
419
PassesContext
424
349
Accurate passesContext
332
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.47
6.50
FoulsContext
11.67
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
14.17
0.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
60%
Scored inContext
40%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.50
ShotsContext
10.00
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
33%
On target shareContext
27%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
64%
Box shareContext
64%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.38
19.80
Shots allowedContext
14.70
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
5.70
BlocksContext
3.56
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
77%
Save rateContext
62%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
409
PassesContext
420
332
Accurate passesContext
328
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.52
8.20
FoulsContext
10.30
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lommel United
LWWLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km159 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 6 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected
KV Mechelen
DLDLL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel63 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 8 · 2 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · -4.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lommel United |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 11 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 63 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 159 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20 | 21.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lommel United
Confirmed XI
23M. Pieklak(G)
4S. Adewoye
8Nicolas Rommens
3T. Eyoma
2J. van Duiven
6J. Pelupessy
11S. Appuah
10Tom Reyners
15Lucas Schoofs
7J. Talvitie
9D. Konadu
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
44M. Eerdhuijzen
2L. Marijnissen
7T. Koudou
26D. Praet
6F. Hammar
23S. Michez
9M. van Brederode
17C. Van Meirvenne
28B. Boersma
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lommel United
Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lommel United+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Lommel United · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
KV Mechelen · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Lommel United | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo | W 4–0 H | L 0–4 H |
| Charleroi | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lommel United | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.17 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 33% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Lommel United | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.20 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 6 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lommel United | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.17 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.67 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.84 | 8.33 | 10.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.83 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.17 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 2.83 | 3.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 17% 1/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Lommel United | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.60 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 7.20 | 10.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.00 | 3.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wesli De Cremer 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.92league 2.98
Red cards0.19league 0.12
Cards 5+39%league 25%
Fouls23.7league 22.1
Penalties0.50league 0.28
Home wins53%league 51%
Lommel United2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 May 26H · Dender3–21
- W23 Apr 26H · Liège3–00
KV Mechelen4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W17 Feb 24A · Antwerp1–02
- D1 Feb 24H · Anderlecht2–22
- L27 Dec 23A · Charleroi1–31
- W11 Nov 23H · Charleroi1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lommel United5 games · scored 6 · conceded 3
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
KV Mechelen6 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Lommel United9 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 9 · conceded 24
2
4
0-15
5
16-30
1
6
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
