Lorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lorient were slight favourites.
Lorient were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Angers. Lorient had 7.9 days of rest, Angers 7 and had to travel 214 km.
Away travel214 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Lorient45%
Draw28%
Angers27%
Lorient49%
Draw26%
Angers25%
Lorient44%
Draw29%
Angers27%
Lorient38%
Draw29%
Angers33%
Lorient45%
Draw28%
Angers27%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lorient)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceStephanie Frappart
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 81
Team strength
Lorient
Angers
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
28
AttackIn forecast
22
45
DefenceIn forecast
12
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAngers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LorientAngers
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.05
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.19
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
67%
Scored inContext
71%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
11.24
ShotsContext
9.10
3.62
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.68
32%
On target shareContext
37%
7.14
Shots in the boxContext
5.53
64%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.27
OffsidesContext
1.89
10.24
Shots allowedContext
13.86
3.95
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.84
BlocksContext
2.95
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.76
64%
Save rateContext
76%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
405
PassesContext
409
343
Accurate passesContext
340
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.00
FoulsContext
10.90
14.19
Fouls sufferedContext
11.19
1.76
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.80
ShotsContext
9.80
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
32%
On target shareContext
42%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
60%
Box shareContext
53%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.60
10.40
Shots allowedContext
13.40
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.22
3.00
BlocksContext
2.20
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
77%
Save rateContext
81%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
398
PassesContext
453
334
Accurate passesContext
380
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.20
FoulsContext
11.20
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lorient
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km219 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Angers
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel214 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lorient |
Angers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 214 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 219 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
44D. Yongwa
3M. Talbi
2Igor Silva
43Arsène Kouassi
6L. Abergel
8Noah Cadiou
11T. Le Bris
10P. Pagis
17J. Makengo
12B. Dieng
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
3J. Ekomié
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
8B. van den Boomen
93H. Belkebla
27L. Rao-Lisoa
6L. Mouton
14Y. Belkhdim
9G. Koyalipou
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lorient
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Angers
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lorient+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Angers-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Lorient · Home
1.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.60
Angers · Away
0.90points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 1.30
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lorient | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Nantes | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| Rennes | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Monaco | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Metz | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Strasbourg | D 0–0 A | L 0–5 A |
| Lyon | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Nice | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Toulouse | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Lens | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Marseille | L 0–4 A | L 2–5 HD 2–2 A |
| Lille | L 1–7 H | L 0–1 A |
| Auxerre | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 28 of 60 · 1.40 per game | 26 of 60 · 1.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Lorient wins2 draws2 Angers wins
Goals per game0.40 – 0.80
Over 2.520%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets40% · 80%
- 26 Oct 2025Angers2–0Lorient
- 5 Feb 2023Lorient0–0Angers
- 1 Jan 2023Angers1–2Lorient
- 16 Jan 2022Lorient0–0Angers
- 21 Nov 2021Angers1–0Lorient
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lorient | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 1.05 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.19 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.24 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 29% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 38% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 29% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Lorient | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lorient | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.37 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.84 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.21 | 8.40 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 37% 7/19 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 6/19 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 5/19 | 20% 4/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.81 | 1.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.81 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 11/21 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 8/21 | 10% 2/21 | |
| Lorient | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 7.80 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stephanie Frappart France · 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.72league 3.65
Red cards0.23league 0.31
Cards 5+32%league 36%
Fouls24.8league 24.1
Penalties0.26league 0.41
Home wins49%league 49%
Lorient1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 May 23H · Lens1–32
Angers7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- W12 Dec 25H · Nantes4–11
- L17 May 25A · Lyon0–22
- W19 Jan 25H · Auxerre2–02
- L30 Oct 22A · Monaco0–23
- L28 Aug 22A · Estac Troyes1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lorient21 games · scored 27 · conceded 33
2
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
8
3
31-45
4
7
46-60
5
2
61-75
7
13
76-90
Angers21 games · scored 22 · conceded 25
1
1
0-15
5
5
16-30
2
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
7
61-75
9
3
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
